As I've mentioned before, you need to obtain a building permit if you are finishing your basement, even if you are finishing it yourself.  Doing so triggers inspections by Harrisonburg or Rockingham County that will help to ensure that your newly finished basement is safe.  It will also keep you out of trouble when you're selling your home:


So, if you find yourself in this situation, you'll probably make a phone call something like this....

Guilt-Ridden Permit-less Basement Finisher: 
Honey, how do you block Caller ID?  Oh yeah, *67, ok, here goes -- wish me luck. 

Rockingham County Community Development Office: 
Good Afternoon, Community Development...

Guilt-Ridden Permit-less Basement Finisher: 
Uh, yes, I had a question about building permits.

Rockingham County Community Development Office: 
O.K., what is your question?

Guilt-Ridden Permit-less Basement Finisher: 
Well, uh, I heard that I have to get a permit to finish the basement on my house, is that right?

Rockingham County Community Development Office: 
Yes it is, would you like me to send you the necessary paperwork?  What is your name and your property address?

Guilt-Ridden Permit-less Basement Finisher: 
Oh, uh, well, so, how much does that cost? 

Rockingham County Community Development Office: 
<Insert cost here>

Guilt-Ridden Permit-less Basement Finisher: 
Yeah, ok, and so if someone finishes their basement but didn't get a permit, what do they need to do then?  Is there sort of fine or penalty?

Rockingham County Community Development Office: 
(Smiling)  When did you finish your basement?

Guilt-Ridden Permit-less Basement Finisher: 
Oh, no, it wasn't (whispers: necessarily) me, but I was just curious about how all of that would work.

Rockingham County Community Development Office:  Oh, I see.  (Still smiling)  Conversation continues....

Good news, folks, they won't lock you up if you confess to having finished your basement without a permit.  Instead, they'll help you through the permit process, perform the necessary inspections, and will likely give you the thumbs up, indicating that everything has been completed according to code.

Here are some comments from some of my clients who had their permit-less basement inspected a few weeks ago in preparation for marketing and selling their home.

I just finished up with the building inspector and he signed off on everything--it was a very painless process (not counting my anxiety about what would happen). From what I understand, someone from the county real estate office will follow up to add the additional livable space to our property assessment. So we are in good shape.

The permit for our basement was $171--that was for framing, electric, and hvac. If we installed a toilet and/or shower I believe we would have had to pay for a plumbing permit too (they told us we didn't need one just to install the utility sink) but I'm guessing that would have brought the total up to around $200.

So, as you can see, it's not an irreversible decision.  If you finished your basement without a permit, consider contacting Harrisonburg or Rockingham County today to have your basement inspected!

Investing in real estate isn't for everyone --- and it isn't without its risks.  But if you have some money to put into an investment as a down payment, and if you have financial reserves with which to cover maintenance costs and months without rental income, you might be interested in learning more.

The easiest case study of real estate investing in Harrisonburg is to consider the purchase of a two-story townhome built in the last ten years.  There are quite a few neighborhoods where these townhomes can be purchased, somewhere between $130k and $160k:

• Avalon Woods
• Beacon Hill
• Blakely Park
  
• Harmony Heights
• Liberty Square
• Wellington Park

These two-story townhouses in these neighborhoods will likely rent for between $850 to $950 depending on the age and condition.  View them on a map here.

Next, let's assume a great deal on the purchase (we'll shop until we find that deal) with a purchase price of $129,900.  However, we'll make lots of conservative assumptions as we continue.  For the time being, assume:

• $850 / month rental income
• Half a month's rent lost each year between tenants
• 20% down payment, the balance financed at 5%

This results in an estimated $927 of positive cash flow in the first year...



This might not seem like much, but when combined with a few other investment benefits, it starts to add up, even in the first year.

Year 1 Investment Benefits

• $926 positive cash flow
• $1,533 principal reduction via rental income
• $638 tax benefit for loss based on depreciation
• Total "Gain" = $3,097

It gets even better when considering the property over five years:

• $6,990 positive cash flow
  
• $8,492 principal reduction via rental income
  
• $2,394 tax benefit for loss based on depreciation
• Total "Gain" = $17,876

And if we assume a meager 2% of appreciation per year, then, over five years we'll see:

• $6,990 positive cash flow
  
• $8,492 principal reduction via rental income
  
• $2,394 tax benefit for loss based on depreciation
• $13,520 appreciation
  
• Total "Gain" = $31,396

Do recall, that you put 20% down ($26k) and paid some closing costs ($4k), so after five years you have more than doubled your money.

There are plenty of variables to consider when buying an investment property, but the basics of the cash flow are the first to thoroughly understand.  For a head start on everything else you need to learn, review this detailed investment analysis.

 An early rendering of an estate home to be built at Preston Lake.


 An early rendering of the Charleston Rowhouses to be built at Preston Lake.

In the Beginning

The news of Preston Lake first broke in October 2005.  Here's an excerpt from the Oct 26, 2005 article from the Daily News Record:


Sales by the Numbers

Now, nearly five years later, progress is still being made at Preston Lake, but not at the pace that was originally anticipated.  Certainly, the enormous changes in the financial markets and the housing market over the past five years have played a large role in the change of pace at Preston Lake.  Let's take a look at residential sales at Preston Lake per the MLS...



Per the data in the MLS (reflected above) there have only been seven single family home sales, but I believe the count is actually closer to twelve when including custom contract builds that may not have shown up in the MLS .  It would seem that detached homes can be built at Preston Lake for anywhere between $350k and $900k.



Rowhouse sales have certainly slowed down in 2010, but over the past three years have been selling between $300k and $550k.

What's Available Now?

There are currently 14 active (or under contract) listings in the HRAR MLS, priced between $299k and $814k.  Five of these homes are under contract.

The Big Picture

Many developments of this scale (as close as Charlottesville) have failed over the past few years as housing markets faltered across the country.  It is remarkable, and notable, that Preston Lake (slowly) marches onward. 

Construction on the commercial parcels has not yet begun at Preston Lake, partly due to a sluggish retail market across the country, and partly because the layout of the commercial area at Preston Lake still may be in flux as a result of the yet-to-be-fully-funded South East Connector Road.

The developer of Preston Lake and its lender (Wachovia) are in the midst of legal proceedings, as described in the Mar 2, 2010 article from the Daily News Record:


Moving Forward

So, what's next for Preston Lake?  My best guess is that residential development will continue (slowly) and that commercial development will eventually take place.  The retail development, however, will likely not take place until the economy improves such that retail businesses (independent and franchises) are looking to expand once again.

If you have questions about Preston Lake, feel free to call (540-578-0102) or e-mail (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) me.  My parents live at Preston Lake -- they built a cottage home when they relocated to the Shenandoah Valley -- thus I'm in the neighborhood quite a bit.

In my opinion, there is already more than enough college student in Harrisonburg.  That said, a developer will soon be starting a new student housing complex on South Main Street near Valley Lanes.

So....maybe Harrisonburg needs a student housing moratorium?

Joe Fitzgerald states (at the link above) "We can't flat out ban student housing, but we can stop rezoning more land for it."

I never considered that a moratorium on rezoning could be enacted.  Several questions then come to my mind....

Is local government overstepping its bounds to create such a moratorium (via *not* rezoning)? 

Perhaps not --- local government wouldn't be prohibiting development, just the rezoning for development.

So, local government is now making rezoning decisions based on market conditions?  Isn't a landowner entitled to make that part of the decision?

If a surplus of student housing creates a burden on the locality in some way (based on the new use or non-use of the old student housing??) then perhaps local government ought to factor in market conditions?

What does this sort of a moratorium look like?

Is this an unspoken stance of local government?  Or a drafted and approved policy?  Could this be challenged legally?

So, perhaps this all comes back to property owner rights?

Certainly, a property owner has the right to use or develop their property as the zoning ordinances allows them to do so.  But does a property owner have any rights when it comes to rezoning?  Are there reasonable, and unreasonable factors that can and cannot be used in a zoning decision?

Weight in if you have an opinion -- this raises more questions than answers for me.

It's always good to get a different take on the data and situation in our market.  Feel free to share your own comments on the state of our market in the comment section below.



[From the Daily News Record, July 16, 2010]

Housing Market Enjoys Boomlet
But Area's Sales Surge Likely To Be Short-Lived

By Doug Manners

HARRISONBURG  - Buoyed by the expected expiration of federal tax credits, home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County climbed in June to the highest monthly total in nearly three years. However, sales are likely to drop during the second half of the year, due in part to the expiration of the tax credit program.

According to a report released by Scott Rogers, associate broker at Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors, 116 homes were sold last month, the most since August 2007, when 138 homes sold. It also marks a 35 percent increase over sales from June 2009.

To be eligible for the credits - up to $8,000 for first-time homebuyers and $6,500 for existing homeowners - buyers originally had until June 30 to close sales, but Congress extended the deadline to Sept. 30. Buyers still must have entered into a binding contract by April 30 to qualify.

‘Buffer' Needed

Local sales in 2010 are 16 percent higher than those from the first six months of last year, and Rogers said he believes that the area will reverse a four-year downturn in annual home sales.

"I think the 16 percent is enough of a buffer" to beat last year's numbers, Rogers said.

That buffer is key because sales are now expected to fall, with most tax-credit seekers having already made their home purchases (Congress didn't approve the extension until late June).

Furthermore, Rogers wrote in his report, "for most of the past four years, there is a steady decline in sales between June and December, so we will likewise probably see a decline month after month."

Contracts Plummet

In April, 121 properties went under contract, the most since March 2007. After the April 30 deadline expired, that number dropped to 84 in May and plummeted to 54 in June.

"This June's buyer commitment rate is notably lower than any of the past three Junes," Rogers wrote, "which is not a good indicator for July and August sales figures."

Rogers said it's too soon to say conclusively whether the tax credits provided a real boost to the housing market or simply shifted sales toward the first half of the year.

"Perhaps it's a wash other than the timing," Rogers said, "except that timing might have helped create some momentum in getting people feeling more positive and hopeful about the economy."

Values Continue To Drop

Despite the increased market activity, home values continue to decline, according to Rogers' report. The average median sales price is $186,450, down 8 percent from a year earlier. Rogers said median prices are not likely to start increasing until the year-over-year sales pace rises.

The average time a home stays on the market is holding steady at about six months.

Contact Doug Manners at 574-6293 or dmanners@dnronline.com

There is a slowly growing area just north of Harrisonburg that you may not have heard of or visited, but there are a variety of factors that may make it a growth area over the next several to many years.



A strategic plan has been created for this North Valley Pike corridor, that suggests turning an existing section of Route 11 into a main street area, with most through traffic diverted to a new road.  For an overview with lots of helpful links, read the post on hburgnews.



A research and technology park has been established amidst this corridor on 365 acres, owned and operated by Rockingham County. 



SRI International has established a 25-acre campus in the above-referenced research and technology park, and opened the Center for Advanced Drug Research, which is a "state-of-the-art research facility for conducting systems biology research in the areas of biodefense and neglected diseases."



An attractive subdivision of single family homes is being developed in this corridor area (I am marketing this subdivision) with prices starting in the low $200,000's. 



A new elementary school was recently built on Smithland Road, not too far from this North Valley Pike corridor.  This has created new traffic flow patterns, bringing greater awareness to the north side of Harrisonburg.

While most development has taken place just southeast of Harrisonburg in the recent past, the area just north of Harrisonburg will be a key area to watch over the next 3 to 20 years.

Can you spare 5 minutes?  Press play below, and I'll walk you through most of the graphs in my monthly report to provide some commentary on what we're seeing this month.

Have further questions?  Leave them in the comments below, or e-mail me at scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com.

Click here for the full July 2010 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report.

We're not out of the woods yet, but several indicators are quite positive in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market. 



As can be seen above, June 2010 home sales soared up to 116 transactions -- the highest number of monthly sales we have seen in almost three years.  Many of these home sales were likely a result of the home buyer tax credit deadline, so we may see a decline in July home sales.



Above, you will note that long term indicators continue to trend very positively.  This graph shows a rolling 12-month sum of home sales to remove the seasonal variation in sales.  After several years of a declining market (in number of home sales), we have now seen a stabilization and increase for over six months.



Despite good signs as far as closed home sales go, the number of buyers committing to buy during June 2010 (contracts signed) declined, both compared to the last several months, as well as compared to the past three months of June (2007, 2008, 2009).  This will likely result in lower levels of home sales in July and August.



In addition to home sales, inventory levels also soared in June 2010 -- cresting above 1,000 homes for sale for the first time in recent past (and maybe the first time ever).  We should see a decline in inventory over the next six months based on historical seasonal trends.

Learn even more about our local housing market: click here for the full July 2010 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report.



Do you have questions about this report, or about the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market?  Or about your house?  Or about a house you might buy?  Be in touch . . .

Scott Rogers  |  540-578-0102  |  scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com

Many people have asked me how much of an affect on our market the first time buyer tax credit has had over the past year.  It's a challenging question to answer --- some first time buyers who bought this year may have bought because of the tax credit, but some (or most?) may have bought even if the tax credit didn't exist.

One way that we should be able to tell if the tax credit had a big impact is to see if there are more first time buyers in the market now as compared to last year.  Thus, I decided to examine the breakdown of sales prices during May and June 2010 (it should be a lot of first time buyers) as compared to all of last year (2009).



As you can see, above, I assumed that I would probably find a pretty big increase in the proportional number of lower priced homes selling this May and June as compared to last year. 



Above, however, you'll note that there wasn't actually much of a change at all.  About 60% of the homes sold in the last two months were priced below $200k and the same percentage of the sales from last year were below $200k.

I welcome your suggestions for other ways to slice and dice the data to get at whether the tax credit had an impact on the market.  For now, we'll say the jury is still out...

If you haven't heard the big news, our real estate company (Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors) has merged with Century 21 Real Estate Unlimited.  This transition is very exciting for our company, our agents, but most of all to all of the clients of our now one brokerage company.  With our combined strength, we will be able to provide even better services to our clients.

The combined company will operate as Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors, with approximately 95 licensees, and is the largest residential real estate company in the central Shenandoah Valley -- both in sales volume and sales transactions.


The full press release follows....

Real Estate Firm Merger Offers New Opportunities In Today's Market
June 30, 2010

Two Local Firms Merge To Provide Clients & Associates State-Of-The-Art Real Estate Services

For the last two years, Joe Funkhouser, President of Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors, has carefully analyzed the real estate industry in the new economy and came to one conclusion: today's real estate firm must be large enough to provide more tools and services to clients and associates.  Joe looked for opportunities to make this happen and began conversations with Philip Constable, broker and owner of Century 21 Real Estate Unlimited.  "I have always had great respect for Philip and the team of associates he built at Century 21," said Funkhouser.

After being approached by Joe,  Philip Constable did his own research to see what local firms would be the best fit if he decided to merge his company.  "I talked with several Brokers and realized the firm which had the closest structure and business philosophy of ours was Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors," said Constable.

This business philosophy is founded on Integrity, Honesty, Professionalism and Knowledge. "Our company is founded on principles that we expect each associate to carry forward in our service to clients and customers," said Joe Funkhouser.  "I believe our business philosophy and the emphasis we put on equipping our associates with proven tools, education and management support is our advantage in today's market".

The thought of a merger between the two firms began last year and was focused on how to provide better service to associates and clients, "Joe and I met many times over the last year to formulate a merger that would bring our two firms together under one roof and create not only the largest real estate firm in the region but also the most professionally trained associates and the firm with the best cutting edge technology in the industry," said Philip Constable who will now serve as Associate Broker and a Sales Manager of Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors.

Some of the many tools available to associates include websites, virtual tours, social media, graphic design assistance, marketing consultants and a strong management team of industry leaders.  "Our company is here to support our associates.  Whether it is a question about building a successful marketing plan or the effects of new laws on our business,we are here to make our associates successful in helping clients," said Joe Funkhouser, who has served as Chairman of the Virginia Real Estate Board and Vice President of the National Association of REALTORS®.

Over the past 12 months, the combined companies have represented clients in the sale of 662 properties totaling $127,845,895 in sales volume.   The firm will now have 95 full service licensees, making it the largest residential real estate firm in the region.  "The size of our firm is a great advantage to our associates and our clients.  When someone chooses to work with our real estate firm they are not hiring just one of our associates, they are working with a team of real estate professionals dedicated to their real estate needs," said Funkhouser.

Along with its sister company, Coldwell Banker Commercial Funkhouser Realtors, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors provides services in Residential and Commercial Brokerage, Residential and Commercial Property Management, Farms and Land Brokerage and  Property Appraisal.  The company was founded in 1975 by Joe Funkhouser and currently has locations in Harrisonburg and Woodstock offering services in Augusta, Rockingham, Page & Shenandoah counties.

For more information about Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors, visit www.cbfunkhouser.com or call (540) 434-2400.
 

For each of the past four years, fewer and fewer home buyers have purchased homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.  The annual rate of home sales has declined from 1,669 in 2005 down to 816 in 2009 – a decline of more than 50%.   Even though the first five months of 2010 indicate that sales activity may finally be starting to increase again, it is still a buyer's market.  There are far more sellers needing, hoping or wanting to sell than there are buyers who need, hope or want to buy.

In many senses, this is great news for buyers – there are fewer buyers to compete with, and more houses to choose from.  Add to that the amazingly low interest rates and you'll see why today's home buyer is excited to be in the market to buy.  But despite this excitement, most buyers want to make sure they are making a wise investment.  In years past, just about any home would do – when the overall market was increasing by 15% to 20% per year, just about any home would see great appreciation.  Now, however, prices are holding relatively stable, so it becomes more important which house a buyer chooses.  As you look at which particular house you choose, one perspective to consider is how you'll do when you re-sell the house you are buying.

Some homes currently for sale need updating – hardwood floors to be refinished, a roof to be replaced, wallpaper to be removed, or a driveway to be re-surfaced.  These homes that are need of some updates can be a good opportunity for buyers – if the seller is pricing based on these imminent costs.  An even better opportunity, however, is a home where brand new value can be added through your improvements.  If you sand and stain the hardwood floors, you will have added value through improving the look and ambiance of the home – but you had hardwood floors before your work, and you still do.  If you replace the roof, you will have added value through lower roof maintenance for the next buyer – but you had a roof before your work, and you still do.  As you look at homes as a buyer you should not only look for updates that you might choose to or need to make, but also totally new areas where you can create space to add value.  Homes with unfinished bonus rooms or unfinished basements offer lots of potential for adding brand new value.  The layout of some homes invites the addition of a deck or screened porch – both of which add brand new value – or perhaps an existing porch can be converted into a sunroom.  When you're just refinishing the existing spaces, you usually aren't changing the functional space offered to the next buyer – but if there is an easy way to add more functional spaces, this can offer you many options during your time of homeownership, and when you re-sell.

A second perspective to consider when buying in a buyer's market is the "timeless value" or quality found in a home you are considering.  Look for appropriately sized rooms, the types of rooms that you use on a daily basis, and the quality of construction and craftsmanship that means your home will still look great in 5, 10 or 15 years.  In this case, it's not just about buying the biggest house, or the house with the biggest yard.  Some 2,000 square foot homes have layouts that won't fit most people's lifestyles, where an 1,800 square foot home down the street might be perfectly designed for comfortable daily use.  In her very well read book, The Not So Big House, Sarah Susanka encourages us to think differently about the layout of a house:

"It's time for a different kind of house.  A house that is more than square footage; a house that is Not So Big, where each room is used every day.  A house with a floorplan inspired by our informal lifestyle instead of the way our grandparents lived.  A house for the future that embraces a few well-work concepts from the past.  A house that expresses our values and our personalities.  It's time for the Not So Big House."

Saranka points out that it's not all about quantity in a house, but about quality – quality in design and materials.

Finally, it is very important to consider location and neighborhood, when buying a home in a buyer's market.  A home can be beautiful, well designed, and desirable to all – but if it is located on a busy road, or in the far corner of the county, or on a street where most homes are old and poorly maintained, the future value of the home suddenly changes.  Buying an older home, or one that needs work, can be a much better opportunity for you, as you have more control over the changes to the value of your home.  You'll likely never reduce the traffic count on the road in front of your house, you'll never make city and employment growth stretch all the way out to your corner of the county, and you won't spend your free time fixing up the other ten houses on your block.  

With many more homes for sale than buyers to buy them, and with amazingly low interest rates, and with fewer buyers to compete with when negotiating a deal with a seller, it can be a very exciting time to buy a home.  When you do so, it is important to consider how well the home will fit your needs, but it is also wise to consider how the home you are considering will fare when you need to sell in 5, 10 or 15 years down the road.

(The Short Answer:  No!)  As reported by hburgnews a developer from Glen Allen is moving forward with a developing a community for 1,500 college students.  Paul Riner astutely points out (WHSV) that it might be five to ten years before enough students exist at JMU for the community to be fully utilized.

Is there really too much student housing already built?

• In Fall 2007, there were approximately 17,428 students at JMU.  
  
• In a few months (Fall 2010), there are projected to be 18,484 students at JMU. 
  
• This three year increase of 1,056 students has been paired with an the construction of 3,473 off campus beds.

Where are these 3,473 new campus living options?

• 422 in a new JMU residence hall
• 332 at Charleston Townes
• 96 at Sunchase
• 816 at North 38
• 188 at Campus View Condos
• 274 at 865 East
• 1,220 at Copper Beech
• 125 at Urban Exchange

Why was this enormous number of student housing properties built over the past three years? 

A few years ago, Harrisonburg created an incentive (with good intentions) for student housing developers to build now, now, now.  Much of the land in the City that was annexed several decades ago was zoned R-3, which allowed (until recently) a property owner to build student housing (in the form of three-story apartment buildings) without asking for permission.  Much of this R-3 land was adjacent to single family home neighborhoods, and thus Harrisonburg took this "use by right" out of the R-3 zoning classification.  R-3 property owners were left with a three year window of time in which they could build this higher density housing (student housing) without asking for permission -- and thus the construction began!


Finally, here are some fun quotes out of the Daily News Record article of July 25, 2007:

"... James Madison University recently announced plans to increase enrollment by 4,100 students by 2013." 

Total growth will probably end up being around 1,900 students.

"With the influx, we are going to need housing. We are going to need housing quickly." 

Well, we have that new housing now -- but it turns out we don't need much of it!

I had heard from several of my clients this week that interest rates were VERY low --- but I didn't know they were the lowest EVER!  Current rates are the lowest on record, according to BankRate.com and others. 

Of note, I two of my clients locked in this week at 4.375% and 4.5% --- wow!

How do these incredibly low interest rates affect you?

• If you have an interest rate above 5.5%, it might be worthwhile considering a refinance.
• If you are buying anytime in the next six months, now may be a considerably more favorable time to buy rather than later.

Let's examine how an increase in rates (as compared to a current 4.5% rate) would affect a monthly payment. 



Put another way --- if you were buying a new townhome this week, could it be helpful to have an extra $1,600 in your pocket?  Or an extra $2,700 in your pocket?  Buying now, with low rates, can save you that much (annually) as compared to your costs if rates start to increase.

Data Sources: Harrisonburg/Rockingham Association of Realtors MLS, Rockingham County Circuit Court Clerk's Office (Thanks Chaz & April!)

Many have asked me how foreclosures are affecting our local real estate market.  Absent hard data on the number of foreclosures in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, I have always mentioned that there aren't an overwhelming number of foreclosures --- and certainly not enough to make a huge difference in home values.

Now, I have the data, thanks Chaz & April at the Clerk's Office . . .

What can be seen here is that the percentage of the home sales that are foreclosures has certainly been on the rise over the past several years.  However, despite this being based on hard data, there is still a bit of fuzzy math....

The "Sales" includes all home sales as recorded in the HRAR MLS.  This includes most foreclosures, because most such properties end up being bank owned properties that are then listed (and sold) by Realtors via the MLS.  However, if only 127 of the 177 foreclosures ended up in the MLS as sales, then the true number of total sales for 2009 would have been 866 sales, making foreclosures 20.4% of the market as opposed to 21.7% of the market.

This year (2010) and next year will be important to watch as we see how many home sales we'll have, and how many foreclosures will exist in the market.  I predict that home sales will level off this year (and thus, stop declining), but that foreclosures will increase over last year.

There are a LOT of homes on the market in the $300k - $400k price range, and I have recently been showing a lot of them to buyers.  I will then have follow up calls from the Realtors representing the sellers, wondering how things went.  Some of the houses are priced more competitively than others, and those sellers (and their Realtors) are often confused and frustrated when my buyer clients aren't ready to make an offer on their home.

Why aren't buyers necessarily jumping at the "best-priced" house on the block?  The main conclusion I have come to is that the layout of the house seems to be a significant trump card above all other factors. 

• A house can offer a compelling cost per square foot, be in immaculate condition, on a beautiful lot --- but if a family spends lots of time preparing for and enjoying family meals --- and the house has a small kitchen and small dining room --- the house probably won't work.
• A couple looking for a three bedroom house can find one in a great neighborhood, with many compelling features, but if the main living spaces are chopped up, and the couple wants an open and airy feel -- no go.
• A house might be priced at the lowest possible price in a neighborhood, and might boast more square footage than all of the neighboring homes --- but if the prospective buyers are looking for privacy in the backyard --- and the house is on a bare lot with no trees and an immediate view of all close neighbors --- the buyers will keep on looking.

The good news here is that even though there are a LOT of homes on the market, YOUR home might offer the perfect layout for a home buyer that has been waiting in the wings patiently viewing each new listing as it comes on the market.

The bad news is that if the layout or floor plan of your house is unpalatable to most buyers, your home may languish on the market.

Back in 2002-2006, just about any home would sell (regardless of the layout) because there were very few choices in homes.  Now that buyers have so many choices, they are often quite specific in wanting a layout in a home that works well for their day to day needs.

June has been a busy month in the local real estate market --- or at least on my end --- as a LOT of buyers close on their purchases of homes in and around Harrisonburg.  Quite a few of these buyers are first time buyers, who will receive an $8,000 tax credit when they file their taxes early next year. 

But the opportunity for this $8,000 tax credit has passed now --- the deadline to have a house under contract was April 30th, and the closing deadline is June 30th (though it may be extended).  So....what now?

The big question that remains is whether this was either:

• bringing buyers into the market who wouldn't have otherwise bought
• bringing buyers into the market earlier than they would have bought

If either, or both, of those were occurring, then slower times could be ahead. 

I've had this conversation with many people lately --- now that this whole tax credit has come and gone, can the real estate market stand on its own?  Will things slow back down again? 

The big picture is this -- fewer and fewer homes have been selling for quite a few years now:

• Only 1,438 homes in 2006 (a 14% decline from 2005)
• Only 1,248 homes in 2007 (a 13% decline from 2006)
• Only 936 homes in 2008 (a 25% decline from 2007)
• Only 816 homes in 2009 (a 13% decline from 2008)

But this year looks different!  Year to date 2010 versus year to date 2009 shows an impressive 10% increase!  That's a 23% swing in momentum, given the 13% decline from 2008 to 2009.  Certainly, home sales in the first part of 2010 could have been falsely inflated because of the tax credit --- but will the bottom really fall out of the market so much that we see another 10% - 15% decline in home sales when considering all of 2010?

I have made lots of predictions about the real estate market over the past five years, and most of them have been wrong.  I did not think we would continue to see the number of home sales fall as much as they have. 

In 2008, I thought for sure we'd see 2007 volume.  In 2009, I thought for sure we'd see 2008 volume.  So.....here I go again:

I predict that we will see 800 home sales in 2010.  That would show only a 2% decline since 2009 --- and would be a turn in right direction from the multiple years of double digit declines in sales volume.

But, as the image above alludes to, there is somewhat of an awkward pause now, as we see what the second half of 2010 has to hold.  I am thankful that the tax credit brought buyers into the market --- it helped to sell properties for many homeowners that really needed (or really wanted) to sell.  I am now hopeful as we move forward, that our local real estate market will continue to recover and strengthen through the balance of 2010.

Click here to view my full June 2010 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report.

Exciting Fact #1 --- May 2010 home sales declined 5% as compared to May 2009, but year-to-date sales (January through May) are up 10% over last January through May.




Exciting Fact #2 --- After three and a half years of steadily declining home sales (quantity, not prices), we have now seen stabilization or increases in home sales for over six months.




Not-So-Exciting Fact #3 --- Sales volume has declined sharply for four years now (red line), and median home values have declined gradually for two years (green line).  Despite early positive indicators for the past several months, we're not out of the woods yet.




Other tidbits that you'll discover in my June 2010 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report include:

• Average days on market is down in May 2010.
• Inventory levels have hit a new high.
• Land sales (1+ acres) are soooo slow this year.

Click the image below to read the full report...

Intrigued by a post over at RealCentralVA exploring the number of contracts for single family homes for each of the 10 past months of May in Charlottesville and Albemarle County, I thought I'd see how Harrisonburg and Rockingham County are performing compared to our neighbors over the mountain.

Reading Jim Duncan's article, you'll note that the number of buyers signing contracts for single family homes has decreased for the past several years.  Here is an overlay of Harrisonburg / Rockingham data with Charlottesville / Albemarle data....



Again, the data above is showing the number of contracts that were signed in the month of May (for the past five years) on single family homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County as compared to Charlottesville and Albemarle County.

To make it a bit clearer....



As you can see, the number of home sales (contracts in this case) has continued to decline for the past several months of May in the Charlottesville area, but those same measures have started to level off and increase here in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.

Take a look at the graph below to see how buyer momentum is shifting in our market.  Do note, of course, that this is people looking at properties online, which is not the same as buyers committing to buy properties.


   click the image above for a higher resolution PDF

It will take several more months to know whether the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market really has turned the corner towards recovery, but the graph above shows yet another indicator that we may be headed in the right direction!

There are a LOT of homes for sale right now....995 residential properties in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County as I type.  BUT.... the current levels aren't too much higher than we've seen during the past two spring/summer seasons!


   Click the graph above to view a higher resolution PDF.

Peak Inventory Levels:

• Current inventory = 995 residential properties
• June 2008 inventory = 956 residential properties
• April/June 2009 inventory = 932 residential properties

I suppose we might see even higher inventory levels as we move into June (CAN WE HIT 1,000???) --- but that still isn't too much higher than recently past years.

If you're a buyer....what is your experience of the current inventory?

• Are there way too many houses to choose from right now?
• Can you still not find that perfect home despite many choices?