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Welcome! This blog tracks the real estate market in the Central Shenandoah Valley, featuring market data and analysis, an exploration of common buying and selling questions, and candid commentary on all things real estate.

If you are interested in discussing any of the topics on this blog, or the details of your specific real estate situation, call or e-mail me!

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Virginia 3rd Quarter Home Sales -- Mixed Results
Comparing 3rd Quarter 2008 sales stats with 3rd Quarter 2007 sales stats results in some interesting market variations across Virginia...

Number of Home Sales
  • Harrisonburg / Rockingham Coujnty = 21% decrease
  • Prince William County = 145% increase
  • Dan River Region = 81% decrease
  • Entire state of Virginia = 4% decrease
Median Sales Price
  • Harrisonburg / Rockingham County = no change (0.3% increase)
  • Chesapeake Bay area = 19% increase
  • Prince William County = 42% decrease
  • Entire state of Virginia = 1% increase
Source: Virginia Association of Realtors

What becomes interesting is when a buyer from a different part of the state is contemplating buying in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.  As you can imagine, some such buyers bring along assumptions about our market based on the current state of the market where they currently live.

Real estate is indeed local, and even within Harrisonburg and Rockingham County market conditions vary by area and price range.  As a buyer, or as a seller, take the time to understand the market conditions that affect your purchase or sale!
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Looking Back at Virginia's First Quarter Home Sales
The Virginia Association of Realtors recently released their First Quarter 2008 housing market report, entitled "The Virginia Housing Market in Uncertain Times."

Their opening paragraph provides a good summary:

The word "uncertainty" sums up the current housing market. A national recession, foreclosures on the rise, tight credit markets, potential federal legislation—all of these factors make it difficult to predict where the market is going. In Virginia, the housing market is performing better than in some other states, although certain local markets within the state are in for a rocky 2008.

The report, provided by George Mason University's Office of Housing Policy Research, is based in part on reported sales from around the state of Virginia.

The methodology is slightly different than my recent April report, but the numbers are very close.  Essentially, sales are down, but prices are up.  In the Harrisonburg-Rockingham area, the number of sales was down 21%, but the median price was up 5%, and the average price was up 14%.

For even more insight into the first quarter of home sales around Virginia, listen to this media conference call where Realtors from around Virginia (myself included), and staff from George Mason University provide commentary to the media on this recent report.

In Virginia, All Real Estate Is Local

Last week, the Virginia Association of Realtors released the 2007 Year-End Market Report, which creates a context for year end market data throughout the state of Virginia. Along with providing insight and analysis into the many local, state and national issues that affected this Virginia's real estate market this year, the report also points out that market conditions vary considerably in different areas of the state.

For example, of the 23 local markets for which data was available, only two markets showed an increase in the number of homes sold in 2007 (versus 2006).  The other 21 local markets all showed a decline in sales as compared to 2006. Overall, the state of Virginia showed an 18.46% decrease in homes sold, but there were quite a few outliers:

  • Dulles Area (+ 9.61%)
  • Southwest Virginia (+ 1.44%)
  • Eastern Shore (- 46.68%)
  • Prince William (-30.46%)
  • Northern Neck (- 29.74%)

However, despite the decrease in number of real estate transfers this past year, sales prices remained relatively flat as compared to 2006. Median Prices were up 1.2 percent in 2007, and average prices were down 3.1 percent.

Overall, the report is hopeful . . .

  • "Virginia faces stronger market fundamentals than many other states, with a relatively strong economy and a housing market with a relatively small share of investors."
  • "We expect that markets in Virginia that have strong job growth and low unemployment rates—which includes most of the metropolitan areas throughout the state—will see increases in the demand for housing in 2008 and prices will begin to rise."

In April, we will see more great analysis and insights from the George Mason University School of Public Policy, whose staff will be continuing to provide these reports for each quarter of 2008.


Virginia Association of Realtors - November 2007 Sales Figures
Virginia Association of Realtors
On Friday, January 4, 2008 the Virginia Association of Realtors released November 2007 sales data (report, stats) for the various parts of Virginia, separated by local Realtor association.

Before getting to the numbers, and some observations, please bear in mind that these are measuring things slightly differently than how I pull my monthly sales stats

According to VAR figures, sales in November '07 (94) were up 6.82% from November '06 (88).  Year-to-date sales for 2007, however, are still down 10.61% compared to 2006. 

When looking at pricing trends, median and average calculations contradict each other.  The median sales price for November '07 ($196,500) was down 1.75% from November '06 ($200,000).  However, the averages sales price for November '07 ($225,744) was up 1.24% from November '06 ($222,970).

Interestingly, buyers are almost as active as they were last year --- as measured by the number of contracts written.  In November '07, 89 contracts were ratified, whereas in November '06, 92 were ratified (a decline of 3.26%).  Year-to-date '07 shows 1,152 ratified contracts, which is a 4.48% decline as compared to 1,206 ratified contracts for year-to-date '06.

Finally, we're doing a little better than average as compared to the other parts of the state --- as measured by the number of sales year-to-date, as compared to last year (to-date).  Our market (Harrisonburg/Rockingham) shows a decline in number of sales of 10.61%, making us the 10th best market in a field of 23 markets that have a combined decline of 14.64.  The best markets right now are Southwest Virginia (+3.00%) and the Dan River Region (-4.71%).  The worst markets are the Northern Neck (-75.31%) and the Eastern Shore (-48.06%).

Source:  Virginia Association of Realtors



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