Subscribe!Welcome! This blog tracks the real estate market in the Central Shenandoah Valley, featuring market data and analysis, an exploration of common buying and selling questions, and candid commentary on all things real estate.
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Rockingham County
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Things To Do in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County |
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Are you new to the area, and trying to find out about local activities and events in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County? Here are some online resources to get you started, each of which has an events calendar of sorts....
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Trends in Harrisonburg Housing Supply |
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For some time now, I have provided monthly updates on the months of supply of housing available in four price ranges. (see May's update) Per Andy's request, I will now also graph the trends in these supply indicators.  How it works . . . Months supply is an measure of the relationship between our market's supply and demand in four price ranges. The numbers represent the months of supply of properties available in each month based on average demand per month during the past twelve months. | |
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April 2008 Home Sales In A Historical Context |
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 This month's sales (April 2008) were a bit of a surprise to me. Throughout March and April I have heard about a LOT of homes that have gone under contract. I had thought we would start to see that show up in April closings, but perhaps it won't be until May or June. It is fascinating to me to see how closely most years follow the same month-to-month trend lines. The black (hollow) circle at the end of the purple line shows the 78 home sales that took place in April 2008. We saw the same April dip this year (compared to March) as we saw in 2003, 2006 and 2007. Perhaps that is because 2004 and 2005 were the years that really bucked the trends as home sales skyrocketed. Whatever the reason, home sales continue to trend as they have over the course of the past several years. Sales are happening at a slower level as compared to 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007 --- but March and April of this year (2008) showed sales counts higher than in 2003. | |
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Harrisonburg / Rockingham County Home Sales Report - May 2008 |
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 Some observations:
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Now May Be The Best Time To Sell |
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That doesn't mean that it is particularly easy or fast to sell your home right now -- but compared to the last six months, and the coming twelve months, now may be the most likely time that your home will sell. Here's why . . .  Despite lower sales in 2008 than in 2007, and lower sales in 2007 than 2006, sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County have continued (in large part) to follow normal month-to-month trends. October-November of 2007 was a bit of an abnormality, but otherwise, you'll see that month-to-month, buyers are coming into and out of the market at the same (proportional) rate as in previous years. This means, that in June, July and August, we will likely have the largest number of closings for the year -- which shouldn't come as any surprise to you. I mention this, however, because some people hear the national news (sales down, prices down), or the local news (sales down by 20%, prices up by 5%), and assume that the month-to-month sales are rather flat, and that it is always a terrible time to sell. Not so. Your home is much more likely to be purchased in the next few months (contract in April, May or June with a closing in June, July or August) than any other time of the year. I'm certainly willing to be proven wrong -- sales during the next few months could defy prior years' month-to-month trends -- but I doubt that will occur. | |
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Buy A Home, While Supplies Last! |
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OK --- perhaps that wasn't the most fitting title --- supply continues to be very high in several price ranges in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.  The graphic above is an illustration of the relationship between our market's supply and demand in four price ranges. The numbers (6, 10, 13, 22) represent the months of supply of properties currently available based on average demand per month in each price range, during the past twelve months. Source: Harrisonburg/Rockingham Association of Realtors | |
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Print It, Pocket It, Prove Those Skeptics Wrong! |
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Have you been hearing whispers (or shouts) of "home prices are plummeting" or "real estate is a terrible investment" lately? Prove them wrong! Click on the graphic below to download and print my April 2008 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Home Sales Report.
Lots of caveats:
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(False) News Alert - 20% Down Payment Required |
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 If you read this past Friday's Daily News Record article entitled "National Trend Local, Too", you might think home buying is in your distant future. The article states:"Mortgage requirements have been tightened to about the same standards that were in place 10 years ago. That is, borrowers are required to put down 20 percent and prove that they are able to repay the loan." (Source: Daily News Record, April 11, 2008) Wait a minute! What was that?? A 20% down payment is now required to buy a home?? As much as some fear that we are headed in that direction, that is not at all the truth. While 100% financing is harder and harder to find, that is not an indication that a 20% down payment is now required on all purchases. There are quite a few programs that only require a 3% - 5% down payment. Now don't get me wrong, I'm not encouraging financing more of your purchase than is necessary --- if you have a 20% down payment, that's fantastic! However, don't be mislead by the Daily News Record article and think that you must now save up a 20% down payment before buying a home. | |
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Harrisonburg / Rockingham Home Sales Report: 4/8/2008 |
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 A few observations about the current state of our market:
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Harrisonburg, Rockingham County Home Sales Increase in March |
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In March 2008, Harrisonburg and Rockingham County home sales took a big jump up, to 91 sales, as compared to 51 in February, and 50 in January.  While it is exciting to see a strong increase in home sales in March 2008, it is also important to realize the larger context:
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Increased Rockingham County Property Taxes in 2008? |
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The current tax rate for real estate in Rockingham County is $0.58 per $100 of assessed value. ($200k home / 100 * .58 = $1,160 annually). The proposed budget for the 2008-2009 fiscal year would increase property tax rates for the 2008 calendar year by $0.02 to $0.60 per $100 of assessed value. ($200k home / 100 * .60 = $1,200 annually). To see for yourself, scroll through the budget below until you get to the bottom section where I have circled the tax rates in red. For a more detailed view, click on the budget to download a larger image. To inspect the budget, visit the County Administrator's Office at 20 East Gay Street in Harrisonburg. To provide feedback to the Board of Supervisors, attend the public hearing on April 9, 2008 at 6:00 p.m. at Turner Ashby High School, in Bridgewater.  | |
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Where Is That Rockingham County School? |
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Thanks to Justin, we easily figure that out (see the map below)! I found this great map on the "Schools" page of the Rockingham County Public Schools web site. You'll find links to each school, and other great information there as well. View Larger Map | |
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Groundbreaking: East Rockingham H.S. & River Bend E.S. |
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Late notice, I know, but on Monday, March 31, 2008 at 10:00 a.m. the groundbreaking will take place for East Rockingham High School and River Bend Elementary School. The location (14652 Rockingham Pike, Elkton, VA) is indicated below. View Larger Map Due to a schedule conflict, I will not be able to attend. If anyone makes it, let me know how it goes, or e-mail me some photos! | |
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Rent To Own --- Balancing the Risks and Benefits . . . |
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 Housing supply in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County is high in many price ranges, and has been for many months now. As a result, some sellers are anxious to sell their homes, and some buyers are hesitant to commit to buying. It has become a standoff of sorts!Additionally, some buyers are having difficulty obtaining financing, as many loan programs have disappeared, or become more restrictive (100% financing, for example). These factors have prompted some buyers to pursue a rent-to-own opportunity, where they would rent a property for a period of time before they purchase it. Sellers aren't always thrilled about the possibility, but some are willing to explore it. Let's take a look at it from a few perspectives: Buyers are typically most excited about obtaining new housing without closing costs, a mortgage, or a long-term commitment. A buyer can, at some point in the future buy the home in which they have been living, without physically moving, and often at a sales price determined at the start of the rental relationship. Aside from the missed opportunity of tax savings, paying down mortgage principal, and appreciation --- a rent-to-own opportunity generally works well for a buyer. Sellers are often very lackluster about the opportunity to lease their property to a buyer and then (possibly) sell it to them at some point in the future, for good reason. Often, the future purchase price is fixed, which eliminates the seller benefit of increases in property values. A buyer typically is not required to buy the property, and thus the seller may be back in the same situation of needing to sell, when the buyer's lease term or option period comes to an end. They only positive aspect of a rent-to-own scenario for a seller is the fact that someone starts providing incremental income immediately. Cash flow can sometimes drive a seller to commit to a rent-to-own relationship. If both the buyer(tenant) and seller are willing to explore a rent to own agreement, here are some of the main questions to consider:
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Harrisonburg / Rockingham Home Sales Report (3/7/2008) |
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See below the report for commentary . . .  Some interesting trends this month include:
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Foreclosure: Mt. Hope Lane, Keezletown |
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February 2008 - Sales are Down, Prices Are Up!?! |
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February 2008 home sales are the lowest on record within the past 5 years (beginning January 2003), according to data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Multiple Listing Service. Only 44 properties were transferred in February, down from 50 in January 2008, and down from 63 last February (2007).  The Good News If we compare this February (2008) to last February (2007) we see two conflicting market conditions:
Advice to sellers --- be patient, as it may take longer than you expect, or would like, for your home to sell. | |
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Housing Supply in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County |
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Here is a fresh look at inventory levels for Harrisonburg and Rockingham County --- looking at all single family homes and townhomes. This is a similar analysis as I have provided in past months, with one notable exception . . . see below the graphic . . .  In previous months, I had calculated the rate at which homes were selling using only the previous three months of sales figures. My logic was that if I looked back beyond those three months, it would take too long for short term trends to appear in my calculations. Today, however, a local builder suggested that short term trends (if they really are short term), could skew these numbers --- and perhaps it would be more helpful to determine the sales per month looking at a larger history than the past three months. Since I update these figures each month, I decided to make the suggested change --- thus, the data above compares available listings in March 2008 with the average sales per month for March 2007 through February 2008. The full data table is below . . .  | |
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Foreclosure: 292 E. Riverside Drive, Timberville |
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Foreclosure: 12173 Port Republic Road, Grottoes |
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Per the Daily News Record, February 27, 2008 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Scott Rogers
Coldwell Banker
Funkhouser Realtors
540-578-0102
scott@cbfunkhouser.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
At some point I may have to add a separate list of "attractions", but here's one great one ---
Shenandoah Caverns
Thanks Allison! :)
September 18, 2008 7:24 am
More.....
One of the best sources for that is the Virginia.org, the state tourism site. It has a huge database searchable by event, location, activity. Harrisonburg has done a great job entering stuff.
September 18, 2008 10:00 am
Oops, let's make that a link......... Virginia.org
September 18, 2008 10:00 am
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