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Scott RogersScott Rogers

Welcome! This blog tracks the real estate market in the Central Shenandoah Valley, featuring market data and analysis, an exploration of common buying and selling questions, and candid commentary on all things real estate.

If you are interested in discussing any of the topics on this blog, or the details of your specific real estate situation, call or e-mail me!

Radio


The Effect of Immigrant Buyers
National Public RadioNPR's All Things Considered ran an interesting story today about immigrant buyers.

Per the story (listen here) . . .
  • 12% of the U.S. population is foreign born.
  • An increasing share of first time buyers are immigrants.
  • In 2005, 10% of all homeowners were immigrants.
  • In 2005, 18% of first-time home buyers over the previous four years were immigrants.
Additionally, some lenders offer loan programs to residents without social secuirty numbers. 
6 Comments so far . . .
finnegan:
Do you think this applies in the Harrisonburg area? I'm assuming there's no way local lenders would admit to lending to unauthorized immigrants.

Interesting to think what might happen to the local housing market if there was some sort of mass exodus of immigrants, considering the local Latino population makes up around 12 percent of the total population.
January 30, 2008 8:43 am

growth, immigrants, and the housing market:
[...] But what about the less expensive houses? Scott Rogers has a post up on his blog about immigrants’ effect on the housing market. [...]
January 30, 2008 3:20 pm

Scott:
I have not heard of any local lenders offering programs for unauthorized immigrants.

There are, however, programs for "non-permanent resident aliens". These individuals have social security numbers, and their social security card will either state "NOT for work purposes" or "VALID for work ONLY WITH INS AUTHORIZATION".
January 30, 2008 3:25 pm

finnegan:
Well, I would imagine that if it happens, it would take place behind closed doors in a very hush-hush manner. In other words, if a mortgage lender did it, there would be no official memos, not advertising, etc.
February 1, 2008 11:54 am

James James:
what concerns you more that immigrants are buying homes or that they are moving next to you?
February 11, 2008 7:24 pm

Scott:
James (James) --- I don't think any of the commentors were expressing concern that immigrants are buying houses, or were expressing a preference as to where they live. Did you get that impression??
February 11, 2008 7:30 pm

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"But I Heard It On The Radio --- Aren't Home Sales Down??"
Today, monthly home sales statistics were released by the Virginia Association of RealtorsAs reported by WSVA today.... "sales of single family homes slumped in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County by a modest two-percent compared to the same month last year."

And yet, you might remember that I reported on those same statistics (Oct '06 versus Oct '07) and indicated that sales were up 23%. 

What gives??

It's actually quite simple --- the Virginia Association of Realtors only tabulates single-family homes (not townhomes) --- my numbers always include both single family homes and townhomes.

So...yes...the number of single family homes sales (Oct '06 versus Oct '07) decreased by 2%.  But, a more meaningful analysis points out that:

Oct '06 versus Oct '07 shows a 23% increase in sales of single-family homes and townhomes.  (click here

AND....

Nov '06 versus Nov '07 shows a 28% increase in sales of single-family homes and townhomes.  (click here)

Always check the facts . . .

Radio Archive: WSVA Home Show: November 2007
 

Last week, Kemper Funkhouser and I were guests on WSVA's Home Show with Ken Patterson.  We talked about a variety of topics such as:
  • Does being in a subdivision (versus not) have any effect on how long it takes to sell your home?  (read more)
  • Are most houses being built with garages?  (read more)
  • Current market conditions (read more)
Use the player at the top to hear the audio, or click here to download the MP3.


Subdivision or Not --- Does it Matter?
Preliminary assessment -- no, not at all!

A caller to the radio show yesterday mentioned that it seems to him that homes that aren't in subdivisions seem to be selling more quickly than those that are in subdivisions.  As I mentioned on the air, definitely a very interesting theory --- however, the data doesn't seem to support it . . .

 Subdivision? Sold in last 12 Months
Sold / Month
Available
Months Supply
Yes 309
26
254
9.76
No
 218 18
178
9.88

If we saw that there was only a 3 month (or even 6 month) supply of properties not in subdivisions (or in subdivisions), that would certainly indicate that it is currently easier and quicker to sell such a property.  However, this data shows that there is very little difference in the supply/demand ratio at this time.

This analysis is based on Rockingham County properties --- excluding the City of Harrisonburg, and excluding Massanutten Resort. 

Garage Prevalence
On the air yesterday, we had some questions about garages --- are most houses being built with them these days, are most buyers looking for them, etc.  Here are some numbers to answer those questions . . .

Garages have become a more frequent occurrence over time.
Looking at sales during the past 12 months in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, here's what we get:

 Year Built
# Homes
# w/ Garage
% w/ Garage
1990 - 2007
382
276
72%
1970 - 1990
205
78
38%

Of late, the larger the home being built, the more likely it will have a garage.
Looking at sales during the past 36 months, of homes built since 2000, in all of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, here's what we get:

SF
# Homes
# w/ Garage
% w/ Garage
0 - 1999
407
238
58%
2000 +
419
368
88%

Tune in to "The WSVA Home Show" on Wednesday (10AM - Noon)
Tune In To The Home Show!I'll be on the radio this Wednesday (Nov 28) from 11AM - Noon.  Tune in, if you have the chance, on 550AM in Harrisonburg.  To provide a bit more context, here are the more formal details . . .

The WSVA Home Show with Ken Patterson is brought to you by Weavers Flooring America, Planters Bank, Shenandoah Paint and Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors.  This is the show that gives you a chance to ask the experts anything you like about home repair and remodeling, buying and selling.  The show will air from 10AM to Noon.  During the first hour, Ken Patterson will be joined by Rick Peters of Shenandoah Paint.  During the second hour, Kemper Funkhouser and I will be on the air with Ken answering your questions.

Again, don't miss The Home Show, this Wednesday, during mid-days on WSVA, 550 AM in Harrisonburg, Virginia.


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