Less maintenance than a townhome, all of the amenities of Liberty Square (and more), one-level living, private entrances . . . . enjoy all of this and more in these 1,300 to 1,800 square foot new condos in Harrisonburg starting at $139,900, built by Scripture Communities.


Click here for more construction photos.

Despite snowy weather, construction is moving along quickly at Founders Way.  Below is a rendering of the finished product.



The first building of (12) condos will be complete in May 2010 or June 2010, thus making first time buyers for an $8,000 tax credit.  PLUS....the builder is offering a free granite upgrade for reservations prior to March 31, 2010.  PLUS....the builder is offering $3,000 of closing cost assistance.

Find out more at FoundersWay.com, call (540-578-0102) or e-mail me, or stop by the Liberty Square model on Fridays, Saturdays, Sundays or Mondays between 1:30 p.m. and 4:30 p.m.

Click here for Founders Way updates via Facebook

My web site allows you to perform many search functions if you're looking for homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, such as the New Listing Search, Quick Search, Community Search and Power Search.

Some time last year we added the ability to search in Shenandoah and Page Counties via the MRIS MLS System.  You can now also search all listings in the Greater Augusta Assocation of Realtors MLS using the same intuitive search functions on my web site!

To access this new data set, just use the "Now Searching" drop down in the upper right corner of my web site when you're in the searching section.



Happy Searching!

It is often helpful to put numbers in context.  Each month I publish a report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market, but today I thought I'd try to put those sorts of local numbers in the context of our neighboring markets.  The following data comes from the Virginia Association of Realtors 2009 year end market report. 

First, let's take a look at how we compared to our neighboring markets as to the number of home sales this past year (2009) compared to the prior year (2008).


As you can see, the sum total of Virginia showed a 2% increase in the number of home sales.  In comparison, Harrisonburg and Rockingham County aren't doing so well --- with a 13% decline in home sales.  In fact, the markets north, south and east of our market have all shown a stronger performance as measured by the number of home sales.

But what about home values, or median sales prices, you might ask . . . .



This is the area where Harrisonburg and Rockingham County has done well --- hmmmmm --- or at least we haven't done as poorly as our neighboring markets, and the state as a whole.  Our market saw a 4% decline in median sales price, in comparison to 9% for the state as a whole, a whopping 17% decline north of our market, and a 5% decline to the east.

This data is consistent with what I have been observing for the past several years --- home values are holding steadier in our market than in most areas, but home sales have been quite slow as a result.

Now, what shall we predict for 2010 and 2011??

The Daily News Record's take on our local housing market . . . .

Federal Tax Credit Boosts Home Sales (Jan 30, 2010)
Harrisonburg And Rockingham See Overall Buying Decline For The Year

By Jeff Mellott

HARRISONBURG - The looming expiration of a federal tax credit for first-time homebuyers in November is being credited for a doubling of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County home sales when compared to November 2008.

But while the news was good for those looking to sell before the original Nov. 30 deadline for buyers to qualify for an $8,000 tax credit, December was a return to more typical winter sales.

In the city and county, home sales increased from 42 in November 2008 to 83 in November 2009, according to the Virginia Association of Realtors. But the numbers dropped into the mid-60s for December.

The association also is crediting the buying incentive for boosting sales by 5.4 percent for the year in the Shenandoah Valley in 2009.

The Valley reporting region comprises Frederick, Clarke, Warren, Page, Shenandoah and Rockingham counties and the cities of Winchester and Harrisonburg.

The tax credit, which Congress has since extended, led to November being the third-highest sales month of 2009 for Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, said Scott Rogers, associate broker for Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors of Harrisonburg.

Typically, November is a slow month for home sales, Rogers said.

Along with the tax credit, he said, some buyers have been encouraged about the overall home-buying climate because the amount of bad economic news has seemingly diminished.

Decline

While the number of sales received a boost for November, the increase was not enough to change an overall decline in sales and median prices for the city and county in 2009, according to Rogers, who also operates the Web site HarrisonburgHousingtoday.com.

Rogers' analysis of the city and county real estate market showed the sale of 561 single-family homes in 2009, which was a 14 percent decline when compared to 654 homes in 2008.

The median sales price of a home declined from $215,000 in 2008 to $204,900, for a nearly 5 percent drop.

The latest figures were significantly below 2004 and 2005, when the number of single-family homes sold hovered at 1,025 before dropping off to 909 in 2006, according to the Web site.

The median sales price of a single-family home jumped from $170,000 in 2004 to $210,000 in 2005, for a 24 percent increase, according to the Web site.

Townhomes

Many of the first-time homebuyers in November who took advantage of the federal tax credit bought relatively less expensive townhouses in Harrisonburg, Rogers said.

Still, the overall sales and price of townhomes declined from 2008 to 2009, according to Rogers.

The 282 townhomes sold in 2008 dropped to 252 in 2009. The median sales price went down from $167,250 to $161,888 last year.

The numbers contrast sharply with 2005, the peak sales year of the decade. That year, 644 townhomes were sold but the median price was $134,950.

Statewide, fourth-quarter home sales for 2009 increased by 18 percent from 2008, according to an association statement Monday.

"There's no question that [the number of] first-time homebuyers had a significant increase," said Lisa Noon, Virginia Association of Realtors vice president Lisa Noon.

The tax credit deadline has been extended to the end of June, Rogers said.

To qualify, a homebuyer must have a home under contract by the end of April and close by the end of June, he said.

Nationally, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday that sales of new homes fell unexpectedly in December.

According to The Associated Press, last month's results were the weakest since March and were only 4 percent above the bottom last January. Many in the industry, however, expect sales to pick up as the April 30 deadline for the federal tax credit nears.

Contact Jeff Mellott at 574-6290 or jmellott@dnronline.com

In conversation today about our local housing market, I was asked how in the world Harrisonburg and Rockingham County home values have stayed relatively level over the past few years when many parts of the state and country are not. 

One key reason for the relative stability in our housing market is continued LOW UNEMPLOYMENT.  Thanks to Jim over at RealCentralVA, for pointing out the Washington Post's interactive unemployment map. 

As unemployment has increased in other parts of Virginia, and the United States, there have been many ripple effects that directly impact those local housing markets:

• people who lose their jobs can't buy houses
• people who lose their jobs often can't continue to pay for their houses
• people who think they might lose their jobs won't buy houses
• people who can't find jobs won't move into the area and buy houses

To focus in on Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, here are a few snapshots from the Washington Post's interactive unemployment map.


 
As seen above, all areas in Virginia and most in neighboring states experienced sub 7% unemployment rates in July 2007.
 

 
As shown above, quite a few areas in neighboring states, and a few in Virginia started to see unemployment creep up to the 7% - 10% range in July 2008.
 

 
OUCH!  The vast majority of states surrounding Virginia were above 7% or above 10% or even above 13% in 2009.  Most areas of Virginia outperformed these neighboring states --- and Haririsonburg and Rockingham County STILL experienced an unemployment rate below 7%.

Home sales finished out at a respectable level in 2009, showing only a 13% decline from 2008 as compared to the 25% decline in sales pace seen between 2007 and 2008.  The area's median price, however, slipped 5% -- the first decline in full year median values that we've seen in this troubled market.



This past month's sales (67 in December) can't be used to predict too much in our market, because December sales were at roughly the same levels in 2007 and 2008 --- with significantly different months and years following those similar December values.

That being said, five of twelve months in 2009 showed home sales at, above, or very close to the corresponding month in 2008.  This may be an indication that the declining pace of home sales seen since 2005 may finally be slowing.



The local year over year housing inventory has declined slightly, from 828 homes at the end of last December, to 792 homes for sale at the end of this December.  That small decline, however, is still not enough of a decline to help the significant oversupply of homes for sale we have been experiencing for over a year.



Read on, and dive into the details by reading the entire January 2010 Harrisonburg and Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report.  Click the image below to download the PDF.



If you find the information in this report to be helpful....

• Feel free to share it with your friends or colleagues.
• Let me know if you'd like to meet to discuss this report and/or the particulars of your real estate situation.
• Let me know if you would like to schedule a time for me to come speak to your company or an organization in which you are involved.
• If you'd like to re-publish all or part of this information on your web site or in an article, just let me know if you need any additional information or graphics.
• If you'd like to know even more about the housing market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, click here to subscribe to HarrisonburgHousingToday by e-mail or by RSS.
• ThoughI spend a considerable amount of time analyzing our local housingmarket, the majority of my time is spent helping people like you buyand sell real estate.  If you (or someone you know) will be buying orselling real estate sometime in the near future, I'd be delighted tohave the opportunity to be of service.

Yesterday's Daily News Record featured an article on the short term rental situation at Massanutten Resort.  The latest update is that:



It has been an interesting four years (wow --- four years) that this debate has been going on, and it made me stop to think about the state of the Massanutten Resort housing market.  Below is a brief summary of changes in that market over the past four years, within the context of the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market as a whole.



As can be seen above, Massanutten has seen a steady decline in the number of home sales taking place in each of the past four years.  That said, the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County market have seen a very similar decline.  The only deviation here is that the Massanutten market continued to decline rather significantly (35% drop) between 2008 and 2009 while the rate of decline slowed down somewhat in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County market as a whole (13% drop).



The graph above shows changes in the median sales price of homes in the Massanutten Resort market as compared to changes in median sales price for the market as a whole.  The difference is staggering!  Harrisonburg and Rockingham County have seen a median sales price decline of 3.4% over the past four years. During the same time period, Massanutten Resort has suffered a 16% decline in median sales price.

It's impossible to know how much of a correlation exists between the soft Massanutten Resort market and the short term rental issue, but I believe this issue has certainly played some role in the changes depicted above.


Also . . . enjoy the second edition of Harrisonburg Real Estate Radio:

Assessments via Harrisonburg Real Estate Radio  [11:55]


Other recent podcasts: Home Inspections

Inspired by 2009 in Harrisonburg over at hburgnews, below are the most popular HarrisonburgHousingToday.com stories in 2009 based on the number of views.

Quite a few of the top 10 were my monthly market reports.  I have excluded those from this list, as the May report (for example) won't necessarily be pertinent reading today.

JMU Student Housing Supply & Demand Analysis (Feb 28)
There are now a LOT more residences than students in Harrisonburg -- click here to read more about the increasing vacancy rates.

Understanding the Over-Supply of JMU Student Housing (Mar 1)
There were some clear reasons why all of these surplus residences were built -- click here to find out what led to this over supply.

How much can I negotiate off of a home's asking price? (Mar 16)
Very few homes sell for less than 90% of their asking price -- click here to find out more about what to expect in negotiations.

The real reasons why so much student housing is being built for JMU students... (Jun 23)
This was a hot topic in Harrisonburg this year -- click here for more discussion of the reasons why we came to have so much student housing.

Who Owns Harrisonburg (Oct 7)
This is a rather interesting look at whether Harrisonburg is owned by people living in Harrisonburg, or by out-of-towners.  Click here to see the break down.

Harrisonburg Has A Tremendous Over-Supply of Student Housing for JMU Students (Jul 6)
Hmmm....a trending topic?  Click here to read more about the students, the housing and the impact.

$8,000 Tax Credit Creates Huge Increase in Home Sales in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County (Apr 1)
If, after reading this post, you are scratching your head wondering what is going on, please read the comments, and check the date of the post.  Click here to read on.

The Most Popular Neighborhoods in Harrisonburg (Feb 25)
This analysis examines the subdivisions where the MOST home sales had taken place in 2008.  Click here to see these top buyer destinations.

Measuring Asking Prices By Assessed Values In The City of Harrisonburg (Sep 7)
Many buyers use assessed values as one indicator of the value of a home they are considering -- but does this make sense if the asking prices (or assessed values) are all over the map?  Click here to see the non-correlation.

Drive (virtually) through Harrisonburg online! (Mar 31)
Google sent their camera car through Harrisonburg and you can now view (on many main roads) a 360-degree of your surroundings on Google Maps.  Click here to see what it looks like, where it's available, and to see the Google car.

I am hopeful that 2010 will hold even more exciting real estate stories -- and certainly, there were many other fun stories in 2009 that didn't make this list.  Feel free to mention one of your favorites from 2009 in the comments below, or make a note of a story you'd like to see in 2010.

Thanks for reading, and Happy New Year!

Have you heard of American Builders Quarterly?  The publication provides a comprehensive look at the nation's entire construction industry by profiling leading companies that consistently perform in all aspects of the building trade.  Take a look at the covers of the last 15 issues (below) and you'll notice one company right here in Harrisonburg, Virginia that was recently highlighted by American Builders Quarterly: Scripture Communities.



This is rather big news, as this publication covers huge developments and developers all over the country --- but they took note (on the cover of the magazine, no less) of this local company that has been building communities in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County for several decades.



The article focused on Scripture Communities' emphasis on building lasting communities focused on market demands.  For years now, Jerry Scripture has been building unique, innovative communities to meet the specific needs and desires of home buyers in many different demographics. 

Communities currently being developed by Scripture Communities include:

• Heritage Estates: 55+ community with stunning French Country architecture, mountain and golf course views, and a community swimming pool.  Single family and paired homes, starting at $339k. www.HeritageEstates.us.
   
  
• The Cottages at Stone Spring:Energy-efficient "green homes" meticulously built to EarthCraft and/orEnergyStar standards.  Single family homes starting at $247k. www.TheCottagesAtStoneSpring.com.
   
  
• The Glen at Cross Keys: Spacious paired homes with high quality interior and exterior features and finishes, with a just released one-level floor plan.  Paired homes starting at $239k.  www.TheGlenAtCrossKeys.com. 
   
  
• Liberty Square: Two and three bedroom townhomes with City convenience, quality interior features many construction options, and several neighborhood amenities.  Townhomes starting at $149k.  www.LibertySquare.biz.
   
  
• Founders Way: One-level upscale condominiums with amenities such as a swimming pool, fitness center and jogging trail.  Construction has begun!  Condos starting at $149k.  www.FoundersWay.com.
  

If you have questions about any of these communities, please let me know (540-578-0102, scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com), as I represent Scripture Communities and can either answer your question, or identify someone who can.

ALSO --- STOP THE PRESS!
Don't forget about the Scripture Community Move Up Program, where Scripture Communities will potentially buy your house if you love one of their new communities and want to move up into a new home. 

The U.S. Department of Housing & Urban Development approved  (some time ago) two updated forms that are CENTRAL to the real estate transaction.  These two new forms will go into effect on January 1, 2010:

• Good Faith Estimate (pdf)
• HUD-1 Settlement Statement (pdf)

The new forms (and accompanying rules) are intended to help home buyers (who are obtaining mortgages) to better understand and compare their mortgage options.  In theory, this will allow them to obtain better loan terms, lower interest rates, and lower settlement charges (closing costs).

The new Good Faith Estimate (GFE) is now a standard form across all lenders.  In the past a borrower would receive a GFE with a different format from each lender that they visited --- each having a slightly different set of disclosed loan terms, or vocabulary for referencing such terms.  Now, a buyer can compare two proposed mortgage scenarios from two different lenders and be able to quickly and easily compare the exact same terms from each.  I see this as a huge improvement for the financing process (for buyers), as in the past there has often been much confusion about how to determine which proposed loan program is better than the other.

Here is an excerpt from Page 1 of the new Good Faith Estimate, which (surprisingly?) is quite intelligible!



But there's more!  Beyond a buyer's (borrower's) loan terms and closing costs being easier to comparison shop, and easier to understand . . . there is also more accountability on the lender to make sure that those terms and costs stay intact through to closing.

Some of the costs CANNOT change from the Good Faith Estimate, others can only change by a certain percentage, and others that can change without limit.  This is a big improvement from current HUD guidelines whereby there was no guarantee that any of the closing costs or loan terms from a Good Faith Estimate would be carried through to closing.

If you're buying in 2010, or beyond, you'll have the benefit of these new lending guidelines.  Feel free to ask questions as you go through the process (of me, or of your lender) -- but hopefully the process will be much clearer and easy for you to navigate!

Take a look at home sales activity summarized by Quarter . . .



As you may notice, we've seen a steady decline in the number of residential sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County since 2005 . . . until the fourth quarter of 2009.  Look again . . .



Please note, first, that the final fourth quarter 2009 sales figure is extrapolated based on data available as of November 30, 2009.  So, my data could be wrong --- but I recently made some wild guesses about November 2009 sales (first I guessed 65, then I guessed 76) and they were both too low (the final figure was 82)!

If we do see an year to year increase when comparing 2008-Q4 versus 2009-Q4, I think we can get excited about 2010 being the year when home sales finally started increasing again in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.  That being said, I will still allow for skeptics to blame it on the tax credit, or for other factors in the current market.  Any skeptics out there?

It seems that there are quite a few people in our current market who want to buy a house --- but they're at a standstill, because they have to sell their current home before they can buy.  It can be a challenge to buy and sell simultaneously, as I pointed out this past September.

But maybe there's another way . . .

I market several neighborhoods of new homes for Scripture Communities, and just recently the builder (Jerry Scripture) has devised a move up program that has worked for him in the past, and is working again now in our current market.

The concept is this: In certain circumstances, Scripture Communities will help you sell your current home, or will even commit to buying your home, if you are buying a new home in a Scripture Community.  Does it sound to good to be true?  It can be of tremendous help to someone who wants to buy, but most sell in order to do so. 

As a real, live, example --- we're in the process of building a home now (at Heritage Estates) for someone who is using the Scripture Community Move Up program.  If they can't sell their current home themselves by the time their new home is complete, Scripture Communities will buy it from them at an already agreed upon price so that they can close on their new home.

There are a few common sense guidelines that we're using when considering these move up scenarios:

• The buyer must be moving up, with a decent margin between the house prices.  It can make sense for Scripture Communities to buy a $200k house to allow someone to close on their purchase of a Scripture Communities $300k house.  Likewise, it can make sense for Scripture Communities to buy a $275k house to allow someone to close on their purchase of a Scripture Communities $400k house.
• The buyer (and builder) must be reasonable in deciding on a purchase price for the buyer's current home.  Scripture Communities will buy (or consider buying) a house a price that is agreeable to all parties --- but sometimes an agreement can't be reached.  
• This won't work for every situation, but it can work for many seller-buyers.  Scripture Communities can't buy every or any home for someone who hopes to buy at one of these new communities, but we'll certainly try to make it work for you to help with your housing transition.

As a reminder, here are the new communities where a move up scenario might work:

• Heritage Estates (55+ community with pool, French Country architecture)
• The Glen at Cross Keys (paired homes from the mid $200k's)
• The Cottages at Stone Spring (energy efficient homes in the $200k's)

A few days ago I mentioned that I thought November sales would be strong, with likely around 65 home sales.  I think I was wrong.  I think we're going to see a big rise in home sales in November.

We've already seen 49 home sales between November 1, 2009 and November 19th, 2009 --- which exceeds all of November 2008 sales.  And if I extrapolate out based on how many occurred in the first 19 days of November last year, this is what we find . . . .



I'll try not to dwell on this too much . . . well, actually, maybe I will!

Enjoy this brief video segment discussing real estate market conditions in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County as of the close of October.



What do you think?  Why has our market remained stable?  What will we see for the balance of 2009?

THE NEW TAX CREDIT IS COMING, THE NEW TAX CREDIT IS COMING!
The House has passed the bill, as has the Senate, and the President may sign it as soon as tomorrow (November 6, 2009).  That's right --- the tax credits for home buyers are continuing --- and now they are being applied more widely.

FIRST-TIME BUYERS
You now have several more months to buy your new home --- you don't have to close by Nov 30 / Dec 1.  In fact, as long as you have the property under contract by April 30, 2010, you'll have until July 1, 2010 to close on the property.  The tax credit is still $8,000 with several imitations on income, home price, etc.

LONG TIME RESIDENTS OF SAME PRINCIPLE RESIDENCE
There's something for you too!  If you have owned and used the same residence as your principal residence for 5 (consecutive) years out of the last 8 years, you will likely be eligible for a $6,500 tax credit.  The deadline for closing is July 1, 2010 (as long as the property is under contract by April 31, 2010.)

TIMING
One important note here on timing --- if you're a first-time buyer, this new bill just extends your deadlines.  If you're a "long time resident of same principle residence" you'll can close on your new house (and be eligible the tax credit) as soon as the bill is signed into law.  That is to say that if you're a move-up (or down) buyer ready to close tomorrow (November 6th), you might want to wait another few days for the President to sign the bill.  You'll enjoy an additional $6,500 net gain --- in the form of a tax credit.

INCOME LIMITS
The new income limits are $125,000 for single buyers and $225,000 for couples.

THE ACTUAL LEGISLATION
Interested in the details of the actual bill?  Click here.

Almost a year ago I mentioned that a new road connecting Erickson Avenue to Stone Spring Road was moving forward.  Construction is now moving forward, with lots of progress starting on the Erickson Avenue end of the connector.

Below is a map showing where that will be situated (click on the map for a larger version) and this is a web site with more details.

City Portion of Erickson Avenue / Stone Spring Road Connector:



The road shown above lies in the City, but the Connector will continue into the County, all the way to Route 33 East near Boyers Road. 

The map below shows an overlay of the approved map from VDOT over top of both an aerial and road view from Google Maps.  Click on either for a larger view.

Rockingham County Southeast Connector (1 of 2 portions)





As far as I can tell, the County portion will cut through the new campus of Rockingham Memorial Hospital, and then cross through Boyers Road before connecting with Route 33.  From what I have heard, Boyers Road will become a cul-de-sac before reaching Route 33.

For the past three years (2006, 2007, 2008) we have seen a decline in the number of home sales in the 3rd Quarter (July, August, September) as compared to the 2nd Quarter (April, May, June).  These "seasonal" declines were 8%, 8% and 1% respectively.

This year, we saw a 15% INCREASE in sales in the 3rd Quarter as compared to the 2nd Quarter.  As stated, above, I have to conclude that either the First Time Buyer Tax Credit is working (creating more sales as we near the tax credit deadline), or our local real estate market is improving.  Or, I suppose, both could be occuring --- either independently, or as cause and effect.

If the tax credit is extended or expanded, I hypothesize that we'll continue to see an improving local market.  If the tax credit is not extended nor expanded, we'll then perhaps be able to determine whether the 2009-Q3 home sale extravaganza was related to the tax credit, or an improving market.

Stay tuned!

I discovered today that the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County economy is in recovery! 



According to the data above, Harrisonburg is in "Recovery" --- though that includes a drop in employment, a drop in housing starts, and a drop in industrial production.  Data apparently wasn't available for housing prices, so I'll fill in the blank: median sales prices have decreased by 4% over the past year in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.

So.....does this sound like recovery to you?  Dr. Rosser sheds some light on a property perspective in his comment at hburgnews....


I have to agree -- we're in a lot better spot than most other areas of Virginia and the U.S., though we still have progress to make before we see those metrics increasing again.

Check out these two stories about Urban Exchange that both hit the news today . . .



Downtown living: Urban Exchange sets a new course for Downtown Harrisonburg  (The New Dominion)






Urban Jungle: Urban Exchange Home To City's First ‘Green' Roof  (Daily News Record)

Click here to view updated construction photos, showcasing the nearly-complete Urban Exchange!  Both buildings (East and West) are now open, as of this pats Thursday.

Gym equipment will be delivered in the next few days, and the final construction details will be finalized.

To see the exciting developments at Urban Exchange for yourself, feel free to swing by our Leasing Center --- we're open nearly every day of the week from 12p - 5p.  Or, call Mary to schedule at 877-548-3831.