Thanks to Rich Hine at Preston Lake for the tip about discounted JMU football tickets for the first home game on versus NC Central on Saturday, September 6th.  With tickets at only $10 (for end zone seats), you won't want to miss what is sure to be a great game!

One of the many outstanding student athletes you'll see in action is Rodney Landers (pictured to the right).  If you aren't sure who Rodney is, read this recent Daily News Record article, where a teammate is quoted as saying:

"He's Rodney Landers . . . He can score a touchdown on any play he has the ball in his hands. He's Rodney. That's all I can say."

Buy your JMU football tickets today!  And GO DUKES!

As a proud (two-time) JMU alumni, I'm excited to wish JMU a Happy 100th Birthday! 

More details on the festivities are here . . .



Click the image above for a printable version of this fantastic photo --- formed by several thousand members of the JMU community (students, faculty, staff, administration, etc).

Urban Exchange, an exciting new mixed-use development, will be built with frontage on East Market Street and Mason Street --- within walking distance to downtown Harrisonburg and JMU campus.



The six-story structure will be comprised of (196) 1, 2 and 3 bedroom condos / apartments, as well as approximately 12,000 s.f. of retail space -- to house tenants such as a coffee shop, restaurant, and other retail operations.

These brand new, upscale units will be available both for sale or for lease. Amenities will include on-site parking, free internet and phone service, a state-of the-art fitness center, public space and an outdoor courtyard.

Demolition on the existing structures will begin this month, and the entire project will be complete by Summer 2009.

For more information about Urban Exchange, visit http://www.ueharrisonburg.com.

Last week the Daily News Record reported that 3,700 residential units are under construction, which seemed to be quite a bit of housing for JMU students.  

Below is a bit more information that sheds some light on the matter (facts and figures provided by Harrisonburg Community Development, summary and commentary by me) . . .

The "3,700 units" referenced in the Daily News Record includes projects in various stages ranging from recent rezonings to projects for which building permits have been issued.  Some of the housing projects included in the "3,700 units" of housing shouldn't be aligned with college student enrollment growth:

1. Some projects were included that are just about complete and occupied (parts of Liberty Square, Beacon Hill, Millwood Condos, Sunset Heights-Holmes Addt., Westfield, and Willow Ridge).

2. Some projects are not aimed at student occupancy (Christophel Properties, Founders Way Condos, Hidden Creek Apts., Hillmont Apts., Lady Slipper Ct., Beacon Hill, Liberty Square, Miller's Homestead, Millwood Condos, Park Rose Place, The Quarry, Townes of Bluestone, Townes at Wellington Park, Wishing Well Estates II).

The largest remaining projects, aimed at students would be:

Campus View Condos
(84) 2-3 BR units    
(84) 4 BR units

Copper Beach
(78) 1BR units
(78) 2BR units
(118) 3BR units
(158) 4BR units

Latitude 38
(96) 3 BR units
(132) 4 BR units

Purple and Gold TH
(132) 4 BR units

Sunchase
(24) 4 BR units

Hunters Ridge
(16)-(24) 4 BR units

Totaling these yields about 3,300 beds aimed at students, which turns the debate back to how many more JMU students will be enrolled in coming years.  I would estimate 2,800 based on JMU and SCHEV figures --- the Daily News Record continues to estimate 4,100.  No wonder developers keep coming on the scene to build more student housing!

In the end, we'll just have to wait and see which projects are actually built out.  Some developers may decide to hold off on their projects as they learn more about the market, or as their bankers learn more about increasing vacancy rates.

In most situations, it's o.k. if we aren't working with an exact number for JMU enrollment.  However, many developers are currently spending a lot of money to build thousands of housing units in Harrisonburg --- many of which are intended to be occupied by JMU students.

When you dig into the numbers, it starts looking like we will have a significant over-supply of college housing in the coming years . . .

How Many Bedrooms??

Per today's Daily News Record, "more than 3,700 residential-housing units are under construction or in various stages of approval" --- of which 2,985 are apartments or townhouses.  However, many of these are not 1-bedroom housing units, but 2, 3, or 4 bedroom.  We'll assume for a moment that they average out at 2 bedrooms per unit.  This provides us with 5,970 "beds" to fill --- and the article later states that by 2013, the city will need 2,500 additional beds for JMU students.  Hmmmm.......so far that's 3,470 extra beds --- and I hope they aren't finished too quickly!

What Is Headcount?

The second problem (for developers spending lots of money on building these housing units) is that the figures being used for JMU enrollment can be a bit deceiving.  The above-referenced article references 2013 enrollment as 21,500. 

The only enrollment projection I can find on SCHEV's web site close to 21,500 is the "Total Fall Headcount".  This is defined by SCHEV as "A student enrolled for more than zero credit hours in courses offered for degree or certificate credit, or a student who meets the criteria for classification as a remedial student."  My understanding is that this would include faculty or staff taking one (or more) class(es), students studying abroad, local residents taking one (or more) class(es), etc.  All of these categories of "fall headcounts" wouldn't at all contribute to a demand for student housing.  The Total Fall Headcount shows 21,542 students in 2013.

For the best "living in Harrisonburg, needing student housing" enrollment figures, I am almost always pointed to the "Regular Session Full-Time Equivalent" data, which is defined by SCHEV as "A calculation of enrollment based on total credit hours taken byundergraduates and first professionals divided by 30 and added to totalgraduate credit hours divided by 24. Includes fall and spring semestersonly, does not include summer term enrollments. May be broken out by onand off-campus activity."  This is a calculation to get a lot closer to the number of full time students will be attending JMU --- and these numbers show 19,333 students in 2013.

Does it matter, or are we just splitting hairs?

If you explore SCHEV's Enrollment Projections, you'll see that there are a lot of figures that can be used for estimating future JMU enrollment figures.  My concern is that the figure that developers are using for their decisions is the highest number available -- and one that counts people who would not be seeking student housing.

I can understand that the City and the Daily News Record use that highest figure in many situations, but when student housing developers use it for planning purposes, it may be a cause for concern.

Lots of people consider buying investment properties -- and in Harrisonburg many people start by investigating college housing. Some don't end up buying, and here is why . . .

Limited Choices

Most of the student housing that exists in Harrisonburg today is corporately owned --- each unit isn't owned by one or more people, the entire complex is owned by a corporation. Thus, if we look just at housing for JMU students, where individual housing units can be purchased, the choices quickly become boiled down to:

1. Hunters Ridge (condominium or townhouse, on Port Republic Road)
2. Madison Manor (condominiums or townhouses, on Blue Ridge Drive)
3. Townhouses close to campus (Liberty Square, Stonewall Heights, Avalon Woods, etc)
   
4. Single family homes close to campus (Mason St, Main St, Liberty St, High St, etc)

However, the properties that JMU students, JMU parents, JMU alumni, and investors as a whole are most interested in are at Hunters Ridge, because of its close proximity to campus.

Limited Monthly Cash Flow

Many investors aim to at least break even on a monthly basis -- they don't want to be losing money each month that they own an investment property. With this assumption, let's take a look at how the cash flow might work on a monthly basis for 1346-D Hunters Road, one example of a Hunters Ridge condominium for sale as of 12/20/2007.

Price of $105k, 80% financed at 7.25%, self-managed
Rental Income + $770
Mortgage (Principal & Interest) - $573
Condo Association Fee - $155
Real Estate Taxes - $45
Insurance - $35
Monthly Profit - $38 (a small loss)

However, many potential investors call and indicate that they only want to use a 10% down payment, and that they plan to have a property management company take care of the property. Things get worse . . .

Price of $105k, 90% financed at 7.25%, property management
Rental Income + $770
Mortgage (Principal & Interest) - $645
Condo Association Fee - $155
Property Management - $77
Real Estate Taxes - $45
Insurance - $35
Monthly Profit - $225 (a big loss)

Then Why???

With these monthly losses, you might wonder why someone would buy an investment property. There are a lot of possible reasons why someone might buy, or why the numbers might work differently for them:

• If an investor is financing less than 80% (and thus has more than a 20% down payment), cash flow will improve.
• Losses on investment property can be good from a tax perspective.
• Some investors are comfortable with some losses, in order to take advantage of future appreciation of property values.

Lots of people have become very wealthy investing in real estate --- however, as explained here --- every investment is not necessarily a good one for every investor. Check the cash flow!

Construction is booming on Old Furnace Road --- making way for "Latitude 38", a 228-unit, 800+ bedroom complex of student housing for JMU students. 

Some public details of the development were highlighted in the Daily News Record in August.  The project is being developed by Franklin Holdings out of Charlotte, NC. 

Apparently they developers didn't read this, as they reference an increase of 4,000 students "over the next few years", whereas SCHEV's FTE Regular Session numbers would suggest that even all the way through 2013/2014 we'll only see a growth of 2,787 students.

One thing is for sure --- students at James Madison University will certainly have a lot of housing choices in the coming years!

How many students attend James Madison University? How many will in the near future? Depending on who you ask, there are a lot of answers to those questions . . .

Current Enrollment (2007-2008)

• 16,546 (JMU - "On Campus Students")
• 15,868 (SCHEV - "Full Time Equivalent Regular Session Students")
• 18,100 (Daily News Record - "Enrolled in at least one class")

6-Year Projected Enrollment (2013-2014)

• 19,333 (SCHEV)
  
• 21,500 (Daily News Record)

As becomes apparent, depending on which numbers we compare, we would find a different growth rate.

• SCHEV to SCHEV shows 17% growth --- an increase of 2,787 students between 2007/08 and 2013/14.
  
• The Daily News Record article references an increase of 4,100 students, being a 24% increase. The article was written this past July, and thus they compared last year's enrollment figures (2006/07) with 2013/14projections.
  

Here's the rub --- growth of 2,787 is significantly different than 4,100 --- and growth to an enrollment of 19,333 is significantly different than 21,500. There are lots of ways to measure "JMU students" --- but since people are making decisions or coming to conclusions based on the statistics, I would encourage them to:

• Make sure you know what the numbers represent (any student taking one class vs. full time student residing in Harrisonburg, etc).
• If you are measuring growth, make sure you are comparing numbers derived using the same measurement tool.