Data Sources: Harrisonburg/Rockingham Association of Realtors MLS, Rockingham County Circuit Court Clerk's Office (Thanks Chaz & April!)

Many have asked me how foreclosures are affecting our local real estate market.  Absent hard data on the number of foreclosures in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, I have always mentioned that there aren't an overwhelming number of foreclosures --- and certainly not enough to make a huge difference in home values.

Now, I have the data, thanks Chaz & April at the Clerk's Office . . .

What can be seen here is that the percentage of the home sales that are foreclosures has certainly been on the rise over the past several years.  However, despite this being based on hard data, there is still a bit of fuzzy math....

The "Sales" includes all home sales as recorded in the HRAR MLS.  This includes most foreclosures, because most such properties end up being bank owned properties that are then listed (and sold) by Realtors via the MLS.  However, if only 127 of the 177 foreclosures ended up in the MLS as sales, then the true number of total sales for 2009 would have been 866 sales, making foreclosures 20.4% of the market as opposed to 21.7% of the market.

This year (2010) and next year will be important to watch as we see how many home sales we'll have, and how many foreclosures will exist in the market.  I predict that home sales will level off this year (and thus, stop declining), but that foreclosures will increase over last year.