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The State Of The Massanutten Resort Real Estate Market |
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Yesterday's Daily News Record featured an article on the short term rental situation at Massanutten Resort. The latest update is that: "The Rockingham County Planning Commission is scheduled to continue a hearing it began in November about a zoning ordinance amendment, which, if approved by the Board of Supervisors, will allow the rentals and, in theory, end the debate." It has been an interesting four years (wow --- four years) that this debate has been going on, and it made me stop to think about the state of the Massanutten Resort housing market. Below is a brief summary of changes in that market over the past four years, within the context of the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market as a whole.  As can be seen above, Massanutten has seen a steady decline in the number of home sales taking place in each of the past four years. That said, the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County market have seen a very similar decline. The only deviation here is that the Massanutten market continued to decline rather significantly (35% drop) between 2008 and 2009 while the rate of decline slowed down somewhat in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County market as a whole (13% drop).  The graph above shows changes in the median sales price of homes in the Massanutten Resort market as compared to changes in median sales price for the market as a whole. The difference is staggering! Harrisonburg and Rockingham County have seen a median sales price decline of 3.4% over the past four years. During the same time period, Massanutten Resort has suffered a 16% decline in median sales price. It's impossible to know how much of a correlation exists between the soft Massanutten Resort market and the short term rental issue, but I believe this issue has certainly played some role in the changes depicted above. Also . . . enjoy the second edition of Harrisonburg Real Estate Radio: Assessments via Harrisonburg Real Estate Radio [11:55] | |
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Scott Rogers
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And . . . it's over! (I think). The Rockingham County Planning Commission has voted to allow short term rentals at Massanutten Resort. Update per WHSV
January 6, 2010 1:12 am
The DNR article from today can be found here (PDF): Jan 6, 2010 article
I find it interesting that one resident states that property values decreased because of the short term rentals existing. My understanding is that short term rentals have been around for many years, and thus I'm more likely to believe that all of the hoopla about the short term rentals (lawsuits, etc) is what has caused property values to go down over the past three years.
January 6, 2010 3:21 am
I think it's also all the development of the resort. While one might think more amenities would mean more people would want to live there and take advantage of what they offer, I think it has also meant a lot more visitor traffic, and I think that has also lead to the decline in desirability. The more people are coming to the resort from outside, the less available the resort is to those who live there.
I also think the rise in gas prices over the past few years has also lead to the area's decline in desirability. When you have to drive 25 minutes to go anywhere, you might as well live in the country with some acreage instead of a crowded resort.
We put our house in Massanutten on the market in 2006 and it took about 10 months to sell it. I'm really glad we got out when we did. I can't imagine if we had been trying to sell in Masanutten instead of the Bridgewater area this last time around. We'd probably STILL be in Massanutten trying to sell our place, and probably would have made less than we did in 2006.
January 6, 2010 8:38 pm
More to the point, I certainly did not get the idea that values decreased because of the short term rentals, themselves. That's certainly not why we sold. It was more the other issues I stated - gas cost and traffic.
January 6, 2010 8:44 pm
Dear Scott,
Interesting article. Although the short term rental approval may bring in some investors to buy properties, it's unlikely to be the panacea that cures both the slow sales and the declining prices of homes. First, I assume, a much higher percentage of homes in Massanutten is vacation homes and investment properties. In times of financial stress owners are much more likely to bail on these houses versus their primary residences - hence, the high foreclosure rate in Massanutten versus other areas. Second, the slow economy that's causing folks to foreclose on homes also stresses discretionary spending. Therefore, I have a hard time beliieving a huge demand for short term rentals in Massanutten exists now (i.e., rental properties may not be such a great investment in Massanutten). From a long term perspective, there will be times when the economy is booming and Massanutten will likely benefit more than most of Rockingham County. Unfortunately, in the short term, the opposite effect is taking hold.
January 8, 2010 4:13 pm
Brooke: I totally agree that gas costs and traffic have likely been a part of why there is less interest in buying at Massanutten as a primary resident. Thanks for sharing your perspective --- I think it is shared by others as well!
Keston: I don't think the short term rental approval will bring in any investors, necessarily, though it may make some second home buyers more apt to buy since they could rent the home out in their absence. Absent this decision, second home buyers would have to think twice about buying because of all of this controversy. That aside, I am in agreement that one significant reason that the Massanutten market has suffered is because of the higher percentage of potential buyers who would be buying a home in Massanutten as a second home or vacation home. Economic conditions of late has significantly shrunken this pool of vacation home purchasers!
January 9, 2010 3:26 am
The irony about all of this is that it is a totally manufactured news story. A judge issued a court order three years ago clarifying that short-term rentals were permitted under the existing zoning ordinance. Since that time, the County has fully recognized the right to rent a home on a short-term basis. Thus, there was absolutely no need for this proposed ordinance.
The story that is not being told is that opponents of short-term rentals just can't accept it. They have continued to complain and tell total falsehood, such as that short-term rentals bring in prostitution and crime. The fact is that short-term rental owners in Massanutten have been extremely responsible and have not had any of the problems that have been alleged. The fact that the County decided to take action here to affirm what is already permissible under court order, is that the County is sick and tired of the grumpy old people such as JC Powell and the Tranquills that continue to press their case with no basis. These people harrass the short-term rental owners by making false police reports on an almost daily basis. And they call county officials with false stories at all hours of the day and night. The County is sick of their harrassment. That is the real story behind this issue. I wish that the press could get it right,
January 10, 2010 12:38 am
Ryan: Interesting perspective! I too have been puzzled by why this continues to be an issue when it seems like it should have been rather clear a few years ago. My guess is that the ordinance is to avoid any future time being spent on people complaining about whether short term rentals are allowed per the zoning ordinance. Now, the ordinance will state that they are.
I don't know much about JC Powell or the Tranquills, or what they may or may not have done to try to press on with this issue, but I imagine many/most Massanutten homeowners are glad this is finally finished and resolved. Or maybe many/most Massanutten homeowners haven't even been paying attention to this because it isn't as much of an issue as some would suggest that it is??
January 13, 2010 12:37 am
Scott,
Do you think the school redistricting from McGaheysvilles to Elkton had anything to do with
the declining real estate values in Massanutten? I believe that occurred around 2006.
January 24, 2010 7:27 pm
Carole,
Wow --- interesting question! I suppose it could be related!! I will have to keep that thought in mind as I talk to people who have moved out of Massanutten lately. Have you heard that from anyone you know that moved out of that area?
Thanks,
Scott
January 24, 2010 9:13 pm
Scott, thanks for this housing market data. Your site is an excellent source of information. Keep it going.
February 3, 2010 12:59 pm
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