scott@cbfunkhouser.com   540-578-0102 scott@cbfunkhouser.com540-578-0102Click Here for Help! Scott Rogers     Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate
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Looking To Coordinate Meals For A Loved One? Check Out TakeThemAMeal.com
Though 99% of the posts you'll find here are real estate related, I occasionally get sidetracked.... 

It's been over a year since I last mentioned TakeThemAMeal.com --- a free online tool used to coordinate the delivery of meals to someone who is in need.

TakeThemAMeal.com

Adina Bailey and I created this web site in December 2007, and since then we have been astonished at how usage of the site has increased all across the country -- to date, over 50,000 meals have been coordinated via TakeThemAMeal.com!

So....if you are ever coordinating meals for someone who is sick, has had a new baby, or has some other need for meals, you might want to check out www.TakeThemAMeal.com.

To learn a bit more about TakeThemAMeal.com . . . .

TakeThemAMeal.com on Facebook
1 Comment so far . . .
Paige:
Thanks so much for this! My friend set up a meal for us to help when baby #2 comes near the end of March! It is such a great tool to have available!
February 6, 2010 1:58 pm

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Search Online for Staunton, Augusta County and Waynesboro Homes
My web site allows you to perform many search functions if you're looking for homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, such as the New Listing Search, Quick Search, Community Search and Power Search.

Some time last year we added the ability to search in Shenandoah and Page Counties via the MRIS MLS System.  You can now also search all listings in the Greater Augusta Assocation of Realtors MLS using the same intuitive search functions on my web site!

To access this new data set, just use the "Now Searching" drop down in the upper right corner of my web site when you're in the searching section.

Search Staunton, Augusta County & Waynesboro

Happy Searching!



Our Local Real Estate Market vs. All Of Virginia
A few days ago I compared the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market to our neighbors north, south and east of us.  Now, let's see how we stack up to the state as a whole.  The following data comes from the Virginia Association of Realtors 2009 year end market report

Sales Context

As you can see above, home sales in Virginia (overall), have started picking back up again --- with a 2% increase between 2008 and 2009.  Harrisonburg and Rockingham County witnessed another 13% drop in the number of home sales between 2008 and 2009.

Median Sales Price Context

This graph is rather interesting -- Virginia and Harrisonburg and Rockingham County both witnessed  roughly a 5% decline between 2008 and 2009.  Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, however, have seen rather level prices for the past several years while the Virginia median price has actually had a decent increase during that time frame.


2000-2009: Population Up, Home Sales Down
Over at hburgnews I noticed a link to a new study from the Weldon Cooper Center indicating that the Harrisonburg / Rockingham County MSA has grown roughly 13% between 2000 and 2009.  [ read more at hburgnews ]

Knowing that home sales have decreased during the same time period, I thought I'd see how the two data sets lined up.  First, though, please note that:
  • Home sales in 2009 (813 sales) are only barely below 2000 levels (829 sales).
  • Of more interest is that home sales zoomed from 829 (in 2000) all the way up to 1,669 (in 2005) before significantly declining again.
Percentage of Population who Purchased

This graph shows something (somewhat) similar --- a higher percentage (1.43%) of our population bought a home in 2005 than the percentage in 2000 (0.77%) and 2009 (0.66%). 

As I ponder this data, I wonder what will be "normal" over the next 20 years as to what percentage of our population will buy a home in any given year. Is 0.77% the magic number (shown in 2000 and 2008)?  If so, home sales were depressed in 2009 (how surprising).  Or perhaps we should expect about 1% of our population to buy a home each year. 

The most pressing question in my mind is when we will start to see an increase again in home sales --- both as a raw number, and as a percentage of the population.  I thought we'd see in 2008 (we did not).  I thought we'd see it in 2009 (we did not).  I think the third time might be the charm, and we'll see home sales (quantity, not sales prices) increase in 2010.  What do you think?

Also, another interesting way to look at the data above is as follows:
  • In 2000, one in every 130 residents bought a home.
  • In 2001, one in every 103 residents bought a home.
  • In 2002, one in every 97 residents bought a home.
  • In 2003, one in every 85 residents bought a home.
  • In 2004, one in every 76 residents bought a home.
  • In 2005, one in every 70 residents bought a home.
  • In 2006, one in every 82 residents bought a home.
  • In 2007, one in every 96 residents bought a home.
  • In 2008, one in every 130 residents bought a home.
  • In 2009, one in every 151 residents bought a home.


Is the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County Real Estate Market Keeping Up With The Joneses?
Median Sales Price ComparisonIt is often helpful to put numbers in context.  Each month I publish a report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market, but today I thought I'd try to put those sorts of local numbers in the context of our neighboring markets.  The following data comes from the Virginia Association of Realtors 2009 year end market report

First, let's take a look at how we compared to our neighboring markets as to the number of home sales this past year (2009) compared to the prior year (2008).
Home Sales Comparison

As you can see, the sum total of Virginia showed a 2% increase in the number of home sales.  In comparison, Harrisonburg and Rockingham County aren't doing so well --- with a 13% decline in home sales.  In fact, the markets north, south and east of our market have all shown a stronger performance as measured by the number of home sales.

But what about home values, or median sales prices, you might ask . . . .

Median Sales Price Comparison

This is the area where Harrisonburg and Rockingham County has done well --- hmmmmm --- or at least we haven't done as poorly as our neighboring markets, and the state as a whole.  Our market saw a 4% decline in median sales price, in comparison to 9% for the state as a whole, a whopping 17% decline north of our market, and a 5% decline to the east.

This data is consistent with what I have been observing for the past several years --- home values are holding steadier in our market than in most areas, but home sales have been quite slow as a result.

Now, what shall we predict for 2010 and 2011??


Federal Tax Credit Boosts Home Sales (Daily News Record)
The Daily News Record's take on our local housing market . . . .

Federal Tax Credit Boosts Home Sales (Jan 30, 2010)
Harrisonburg And Rockingham See Overall Buying Decline For The Year

The Townes at BluestoneBy Jeff Mellott

HARRISONBURG - The looming expiration of a federal tax credit for first-time homebuyers in November is being credited for a doubling of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County home sales when compared to November 2008.

But while the news was good for those looking to sell before the original Nov. 30 deadline for buyers to qualify for an $8,000 tax credit, December was a return to more typical winter sales.

In the city and county, home sales increased from 42 in November 2008 to 83 in November 2009, according to the Virginia Association of Realtors. But the numbers dropped into the mid-60s for December.

The association also is crediting the buying incentive for boosting sales by 5.4 percent for the year in the Shenandoah Valley in 2009.

The Valley reporting region comprises Frederick, Clarke, Warren, Page, Shenandoah and Rockingham counties and the cities of Winchester and Harrisonburg.

The tax credit, which Congress has since extended, led to November being the third-highest sales month of 2009 for Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, said Scott Rogers, associate broker for Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors of Harrisonburg.

Typically, November is a slow month for home sales, Rogers said.

Along with the tax credit, he said, some buyers have been encouraged about the overall home-buying climate because the amount of bad economic news has seemingly diminished.

Decline

While the number of sales received a boost for November, the increase was not enough to change an overall decline in sales and median prices for the city and county in 2009, according to Rogers, who also operates the Web site HarrisonburgHousingtoday.com.

Rogers' analysis of the city and county real estate market showed the sale of 561 single-family homes in 2009, which was a 14 percent decline when compared to 654 homes in 2008.

The median sales price of a home declined from $215,000 in 2008 to $204,900, for a nearly 5 percent drop.

The latest figures were significantly below 2004 and 2005, when the number of single-family homes sold hovered at 1,025 before dropping off to 909 in 2006, according to the Web site.

The median sales price of a single-family home jumped from $170,000 in 2004 to $210,000 in 2005, for a 24 percent increase, according to the Web site.

Townhomes

Many of the first-time homebuyers in November who took advantage of the federal tax credit bought relatively less expensive townhouses in Harrisonburg, Rogers said.

Still, the overall sales and price of townhomes declined from 2008 to 2009, according to Rogers.

The 282 townhomes sold in 2008 dropped to 252 in 2009. The median sales price went down from $167,250 to $161,888 last year.

The numbers contrast sharply with 2005, the peak sales year of the decade. That year, 644 townhomes were sold but the median price was $134,950.

Statewide, fourth-quarter home sales for 2009 increased by 18 percent from 2008, according to an association statement Monday.

"There's no question that [the number of] first-time homebuyers had a significant increase," said Lisa Noon, Virginia Association of Realtors vice president Lisa Noon.

The tax credit deadline has been extended to the end of June, Rogers said.

To qualify, a homebuyer must have a home under contract by the end of April and close by the end of June, he said.

Nationally, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday that sales of new homes fell unexpectedly in December.

According to The Associated Press, last month's results were the weakest since March and were only 4 percent above the bottom last January. Many in the industry, however, expect sales to pick up as the April 30 deadline for the federal tax credit nears.

Contact Jeff Mellott at 574-6290 or jmellott@dnronline.com



Harrisonburg, Rockingham County Housing Market Stabilized By Low Unemployment Rates
In conversation today about our local housing market, I was asked how in the world Harrisonburg and Rockingham County home values have stayed relatively level over the past few years when many parts of the state and country are not. 

One key reason for the relative stability in our housing market is continued LOW UNEMPLOYMENT.  Thanks to Jim over at RealCentralVA, for pointing out the Washington Post's interactive unemployment map

As unemployment has increased in other parts of Virginia, and the United States, there have been many ripple effects that directly impact those local housing markets:
  • people who lose their jobs can't buy houses
  • people who lose their jobs often can't continue to pay for their houses
  • people who think they might lose their jobs won't buy houses
  • people who can't find jobs won't move into the area and buy houses
To focus in on Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, here are a few snapshots from the Washington Post's interactive unemployment map.

Unemployment Rates in 2007
 
As seen above, all areas in Virginia and most in neighboring states experienced sub 7% unemployment rates in July 2007.
 
Unemployment Rates in 2008
 
As shown above, quite a few areas in neighboring states, and a few in Virginia started to see unemployment creep up to the 7% - 10% range in July 2008.
 
Unemployment Rates in 2009
 
OUCH!  The vast majority of states surrounding Virginia were above 7% or above 10% or even above 13% in 2009.  Most areas of Virginia outperformed these neighboring states --- and Haririsonburg and Rockingham County STILL experienced an unemployment rate below 7%.


Power Search: Finding Cute Homes, Short Sales, Fixer Uppers and More!
Just a brief public service announcement, reminding you of the ever-entertaining "Power Search" function on my web site.  Use the "Keywords" field to search by all sorts of things, such as "short sale"......

Power Searching

As you can see, this gave us 14 search results.  Thus, if you've ever wanted to search for current short sale listings, you can do so using the Keywords field in my web site's Powersearch function.

Also, as some bonus analysis for today:
  • 22 listings are described as "cute"
  • 28 listings are described as "cozy"
  • 175 listings are described as "spacious" (wow!)
  • 4 listings are described as "fixer upper"
Did you, or can you find a additional fun search term?  Leave it in the comments, or e-mail me about it.


What Percentage Of Under Contract Homes Actually Sell?
House For Sale

This was an interesting question from one of my clients --- relative to whether we should take the time to go look at a property that is currently under contract.  Their perspective was that if quite a few contracts fall through, it could be worthwhile to go look at an under contract property -- but if most stay together, then maybe not.

As it turns out, most homes stay under contract if they go under contract.

In 2009, 818 homes went under contract.  Only 77 homes came back from being under contract.
How Often Do Contracts Fall Through?

This contract success rate is a bit lower than past years, but much better than 2006!
  • 2006: 998 homes went under contract, 120 contracts fell through  --- an 88% success rate.
     
  • 2007: 1,118 homes went under contract, 79 contracts fell through  --- a 93% success rate.
     
  • 2008: 882 homes went under contract, 70 contracts fell through --- a 92% success rate.
     
  • 2009: 741 homes went under contract, 77 contracts fell through ---  a 91% success rate.
 

Looking For A Dutch Colonial In Rockingham County?
Good Luck!  There are only two listings on the market right now labeled as Dutch Colonial homes.  Let's take a look at what IS for sale . . . .

For Sale Now

As you can see, ranches, townhomes, contemporary homes and colonial homes are your best (or at least most prolific) option in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.  Also of note, here's what sold in 2009 . . . .

Sold in 2009

We find the same leaders -- ranches, townhomes, contemporary homes and colonials.  Thus, we have a bit of a chicken/egg dilemma.  Are these types of homes being sold because that's what people want, or because that's what is available.

Here are the full numbers for those who are curious . . . .

Home Styles table  . 

Are Foreclosure Rates Increasing In Harrisonburg and Rockingham County?
Over at HarrisonburgForeclosures.com, I post notices of upcoming Trustee Sales (foreclosure auctions).  The graph below shows how many trustee sale notices we've seen over the past 7 months.

Trustee Sale Notices

As you can see, there has been a general increase over the past seven months, though it certainly could be a seasonal cycle since I don't have 12 months of data yet.

Do remember that these numbers do not indicate how many properties are actually foreclosed on, but rather the number of properties for which a trustee sale is scheduled --- regardless of whether it ends up taking place.

I'm working to get my hands on data about how many sales actually go through.  Stay tuned!


Starter Home Buyers Increase, High End Home Buyers Decrease . . . And Prices Remain Constant??
Jennifer Chapman, one of my associates at Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors brought some very interesting data to light yesterday.  She noticed that there are fewer and fewer homes selling over $300k.  I thought I'd take a look . . . .

First, bear in mind that the median sales price has gone largely unchanged between 2006 and 2009, showing only a 3.5% decrease.  (full market report)  This would suggest (in some ways) that we've probably seen a roughly equivalent number of inexpensive and expensive homes selling over the past several years.  This actually does not turn out to be true . . . .

Buyer Shifts

I can make plenty of guesses as to why we're seeing these shifts, including:
  • The first time buyer tax credit has likely increased the number offirst time buyers, and thus the number of inexpensive home sales. 
  • Most upper end home buyers have to sell an existing home before buying.  A slower market has likely slowed down this trading up process, and thus decreasing the number of high end homes.
Do you have other explanations for the shift in what types of buyers are actually buying in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County?  Let me know what your guesses are.  The fascinating part ot me is that despite a 35% increase in sales of inexpensive homes (sub $175k) and a 27% decrease in sales of expensive homes ($300k plus), we still only saw a 3% decrease in median sales price over the past three years!?!


Competing With Your Neighbors: Median Values VS. The Price For Which You Can Actually Sell Your Home
But don't ACTUALLY argue with your neighbors....

It is wonderful that the median sales price, and thus home values, have not significantly eroded in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market.  In fact:
  • The median sales price increased 61% over the past nine years, at an average rate of 6.7% per year.
  • Housing values in many other parts of the country have fallen significantly over the past three years, but the median sales price in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County has only declined by 3% over the past three years, at an average rate of 1% per year.
Yet, despite the fact that home values are holding rather steady in our market, that doesn't necessarily mean that you'll be able to sell your home for the same amount that you could have sold it in 2006.  What is the problem here, you might ask?  It's your neighbor!

You see, if you bought a townhome in Harrisonburg for $160,000 in 2006, you might think you could sell it for about $155,200 now (3% less) given the statistics above.  But......if your neighbor bought their townhouse several years earlier for $130,000.....they may be competing with you by listing their house at only $140,000.  They can, you see, sell for less and still make a profit.

Likewise, if you bought a home in Rockingham County for $400,000 in 2006,you might think you could sell it for about $388,000 now (3% less)given the statistics above.  But......if your neighbor bought theirhome several years earlier for $325,000.....they may be competingwith you by listing their house at only $350,000.  They can, you see,sell for less and still make a profit.

So....I'm not encouraging you to get upset with your neighbor, or try to get them to increase the asking price on their home --- but you do need to know that competing list prices affect the value of your home (if you're trying to sell it) just as much as recent sales (as reflected in median sales prices).


2009 Real Estate Round Up: City vs. County, SFH vs. TH
Earlier this week I published my monthly market report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market.  While my report does examine how single family homes performed compared to townhomes, it doesn't examine how City properties compared to County properties.  Let's take a look at how each category performed in 2009, as compared to 2008.
City vs. County
Interestingly, there was a much more significant drop off in the number of City properties (23% decline) as compared to County properties (6% decline).  Yet, while fewer City properties sold, they seem to have (marginally) maintained their value better than those in the County.  The median sales price of City properties declined by 3%, while those in the County declined by 5%.
Single Family Homes vs. Townhomes
Above you will notice that townhomes outperformed single family homes in both measures I've calculated.  There was a more significant drop off in single family homes (14%) as compared to townhomes (11%), and there was a more significant decline in single family home median sales prices (5%) than townhome median sales prices (3%).

The conclusion here?  City townhomes seem to be the general victor here, with County single family homes suffering the most.

Interested in a different cut of the data?  E-mail (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me (540-578-0102) and I'll put it together for you!


January 2010 Harrisonburg and Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report: Prices Edge Down Slightly, Declines in Sales Pace Gently Slow
Home sales finished out at a respectable level in 2009, showing only a 13% decline from 2008 as compared to the 25% decline in sales pace seen between 2007 and 2008.  The area's median price, however, slipped 5% -- the first decline in full year median values that we've seen in this troubled market.

Slowing Sales Volume

This past month's sales (67 in December) can't be used to predict too much in our market, because December sales were at roughly the same levels in 2007 and 2008 --- with significantly different months and years following those similar December values.

That being said, five of twelve months in 2009 showed home sales at, above, or very close to the corresponding month in 2008.  This may be an indication that the declining pace of home sales seen since 2005 may finally be slowing.

Monthy by Month Sales

The local year over year housing inventory has declined slightly, from 828 homes at the end of last December, to 792 homes for sale at the end of this December.  That small decline, however, is still not enough of a decline to help the significant oversupply of homes for sale we have been experiencing for over a year.

Inventory Levels

Read on, and dive into the details by reading the entire January 2010 Harrisonburg and Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report.  Click the image below to download the PDF.

January 2010 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

If you find the information in this report to be helpful....
  • Feel free to share it with your friends or colleagues.
  • Let me know if you'd like to meet to discuss this report and/or the particulars of your real estate situation.
  • Let me know if you would like to schedule a time for me to come speak to your company or an organization in which you are involved.
  • If you'd like to re-publish all or part of this information on your web site or in an article, just let me know if you need any additional information or graphics.
  • If you'd like to know even more about the housing market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, click here to subscribe to HarrisonburgHousingToday by e-mail or by RSS.
  • ThoughI spend a considerable amount of time analyzing our local housingmarket, the majority of my time is spent helping people like you buyand sell real estate.  If you (or someone you know) will be buying orselling real estate sometime in the near future, I'd be delighted tohave the opportunity to be of service.


The State Of The Massanutten Resort Real Estate Market
Yesterday's Daily News Record featured an article on the short term rental situation at Massanutten Resort.  The latest update is that:

"The Rockingham County Planning Commission is scheduled to continue a hearing it began in November about a zoning ordinance amendment, which, if approved by the Board of Supervisors, will allow the rentals and, in theory, end the debate."


It has been an interesting four years (wow --- four years) that this debate has been going on, and it made me stop to think about the state of the Massanutten Resort housing market.  Below is a brief summary of changes in that market over the past four years, within the context of the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market as a whole.

Sales in Massanutten

As can be seen above, Massanutten has seen a steady decline in the number of home sales taking place in each of the past four years.  That said, the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County market have seen a very similar decline.  The only deviation here is that the Massanutten market continued to decline rather significantly (35% drop) between 2008 and 2009 while the rate of decline slowed down somewhat in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County market as a whole (13% drop).

Prices in Massanutten

The graph above shows changes in the median sales price of homes in the Massanutten Resort market as compared to changes in median sales price for the market as a whole.  The difference is staggering!  Harrisonburg and Rockingham County have seen a median sales price decline of 3.4% over the past four years. During the same time period, Massanutten Resort has suffered a 16% decline in median sales price.

It's impossible to know how much of a correlation exists between the soft Massanutten Resort market and the short term rental issue, but I believe this issue has certainly played some role in the changes depicted above.


Also . . . enjoy the second edition of Harrisonburg Real Estate Radio:

Assessments via Harrisonburg Real Estate Radio  [11:55]


Other recent podcasts: Home Inspections

What Type Of Housing Is Being Built In Harrisonburg And Rockingham County
New Homes

One way to take a look at what is being built in and around Harrisonburg is by examining the Harrisonburg / Rockingham MLS to analyze listings circa 2009+.  First, or note, a full 14% of listings currently for sale in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County appear to be new construction.  (113 homes out of 793 homes).

Here's a big picture summary of these new homes for sale in our market:
  • 51 are single family homes, and 62 are townhomes
  • the townhomes are priced between $119,900 and $499,000
  • the single family homes are priced between $76,495 and $738,600
  • the median square footage of new single family homes is 1,868 SF
  • the median square footage of new townhomes is 1,41F SF
  • these new dwellings have been on the market an average of 194 days (six+ months)
If you're considering buying a new home in Harrisonburg, feel free to call (540-578-0102) or e-mail (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) to consult with me.  I work with quite a few builders and have become very familiar with the new construction process.

Also . . . enjoy the first edition of Harrisonburg Real Estate Radio:

Home Inspections via Harrisonburg Real Estate Radio  [08:38]

 

2009 Highlights of Harrisonburg Real Estate Happenings
Inspired by 2009 in Harrisonburg over at hburgnews, below are the most popular HarrisonburgHousingToday.com stories in 2009 based on the number of views.

Quite a few of the top 10 were my monthly market reports.  I have excluded those from this list, as the May report (for example) won't necessarily be pertinent reading today.

JMU Student Housing Supply & Demand Analysis (Feb 28)
There are now a LOT more residences than students in Harrisonburg -- click here to read more about the increasing vacancy rates.

Understanding the Over-Supply of JMU Student Housing (Mar 1)
There were some clear reasons why all of these surplus residences were built -- click here to find out what led to this over supply.

How much can I negotiate off of a home's asking price? (Mar 16)
Very few homes sell for less than 90% of their asking price -- click here to find out more about what to expect in negotiations.

The real reasons why so much student housing is being built for JMU students... (Jun 23)
This was a hot topic in Harrisonburg this year -- click here for more discussion of the reasons why we came to have so much student housing.

Who Owns Harrisonburg (Oct 7)
This is a rather interesting look at whether Harrisonburg is owned by people living in Harrisonburg, or by out-of-towners.  Click here to see the break down.

Harrisonburg Has A Tremendous Over-Supply of Student Housing for JMU Students (Jul 6)
Hmmm....a trending topic?  Click here to read more about the students, the housing and the impact.

$8,000 Tax Credit Creates Huge Increase in Home Sales in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County (Apr 1)
If, after reading this post, you are scratching your head wondering what is going on, please read the comments, and check the date of the post.  Click here to read on.

The Most Popular Neighborhoods in Harrisonburg (Feb 25)
This analysis examines the subdivisions where the MOST home sales had taken place in 2008.  Click here to see these top buyer destinations.

Measuring Asking Prices By Assessed Values In The City of Harrisonburg (Sep 7)
Many buyers use assessed values as one indicator of the value of a home they are considering -- but does this make sense if the asking prices (or assessed values) are all over the map?  Click here to see the non-correlation.

Drive (virtually) through Harrisonburg online! (Mar 31)
Google sent their camera car through Harrisonburg and you can now view (on many main roads) a 360-degree of your surroundings on Google Maps.  Click here to see what it looks like, where it's available, and to see the Google car.

I am hopeful that 2010 will hold even more exciting real estate stories -- and certainly, there were many other fun stories in 2009 that didn't make this list.  Feel free to mention one of your favorites from 2009 in the comments below, or make a note of a story you'd like to see in 2010.

Thanks for reading, and Happy New Year!

What Happens If My Neighbor Is Foreclosed Upon?
Thankfully, the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market is not greatly affected by foreclosures and short sales.  Many people ask why we haven't seen an overwhelming number of foreclosures in this area -- to which I offer:
  • We did not see as many hopeful homeowners pursuing the wild and crazy loan programs (interest only, reverse mortgages, etc) that some borrowers utilized in larger metropolitan areas.
  • We did not have a great deal of overbuilding as was seen in many other metropolitan areas, leading to even higher levels of surplus inventory than we experienced in our market.
  • We did not have investors contracting to buy multiple new construction properties with the sole intent of flipping them once construction was complete.
  • We did not see as huge of an increase in values as was seen in many larger metropolitan areas.
All of these factors contributed to a relatively low foreclosure rate in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.  But indeed, some houses are foreclosed upon, and this often causes neighbors to wonder what will happen to the value of their property because of this foreclosure sale.  But before we get to the potential impact, let's examine how such a property might be sold:
  • The homeowner might seek their lender's approval for a short sale -- a sale in which the proceeds from the settlement do not allow the homeowner to repay their lender in full, and where the homeowner does not have sufficient personal funds to cover the difference.  For example, if a homeowner borrowed $400k for their purchase, and a year later could only sell the house for $350k (and didn't have $50k to cover the gap), they might seek lender approval for selling the house at $350k and short-changing the lender by $50k. 
  • The property might be sold at a Trustee Sale, which is an auction on the courthouse steps. 
  • If the property is not purchased at the Trustee Sale, it becomes a bank owned property (REO) and is then put back on the market, sometimes at a below market value.
In any of the scenarios above, the property is likely to sell at a "below market" price.  Consider for a moment that homes in a particular neighborhood generally sell for between $250k and $300k.  We'll assume that the property in question (either a short sale, trustee sale, or REO sale) sells for $200k instead --- a big gap below market value.  Again, neighbors would understandably wonder whether that now means that their house is only worth $200k. 

So, what is the impact?  In our market, with a very low number of foreclosures, this sale will not have a tremendous impact, unless the particular neighborhood where it is situated happens to have an above average number of foreclosures.  Let's see why . . . .

Effect of Foreclosures

The table above demonstrates the impact of foreclosures on a given market when 8% of the sales are foreclosures, 50% and 75%.  Of note, I have informally heard from several colleagues in Winchester that earlier this year 75% of active listings in their market were foreclosures, short sales or bank owned properties.  The analysis above assumes that "normal sales" range from $250k to $300k, and that the foreclosure sales are all at $200k.

As you can see, with a foreclosure rate of less than 10%, the impact on median sales price is marginal.  However, the market value of homes really starts to shift as there are more and more foreclosures in a market.

Interestingly, this is a bit of a snowball effect.  More foreclosure sales bring home values down, which puts more homeowners under water, which causes more foreclosures, which brings home values down further, etc., etc., etc.  Thankfully our local market has escaped this downward cycle to date!

This is a broad topic, so feel free to ask some clarifying questions or raise other thoughts or perspectives, in the comments below, by e-mail (scott@cbfunkhouser.com) or by calling me at 540-578-0102.


Scripture Communities Earns National Recogition in "American Builders Quarterly" Magazine
Have you heard of American Builders QuarterlyThe publication provides a comprehensive look at the nation's entire construction industry by profiling leading companies that consistently perform in all aspects of the building trade.  Take a look at the covers of the last 15 issues (below) and you'll notice one company right here in Harrisonburg, Virginia that was recently highlighted by American Builders Quarterly: Scripture Communities.

American Builders Quarterly

This is rather big news, as this publication covers huge developments and developers all over the country --- but they took note (on the cover of the magazine, no less) of this local company that has been building communities in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County for several decades.

American Builders Quarterly

The article focused on Scripture Communities' emphasis on building lasting communities focused on market demands.  For years now, Jerry Scripture has been building unique, innovative communities to meet the specific needs and desires of home buyers in many different demographics. 

Communities currently being developed by Scripture Communities include:
  • Heritage Estates: 55+ community with stunning French Country architecture, mountain and golf course views, and a community swimming pool.  Single family and paired homes, starting at $339k. www.HeritageEstates.us.
     
  • The Cottages at Stone Spring:Energy-efficient "green homes" meticulously built to EarthCraft and/orEnergyStar standards.  Single family homes starting at $247k. www.TheCottagesAtStoneSpring.com.
     
  • The Glen at Cross Keys: Spacious paired homes with high quality interior and exterior features and finishes, with a just released one-level floor plan.  Paired homes starting at $239k.  www.TheGlenAtCrossKeys.com
     
  • Liberty Square: Two and three bedroom townhomes with City convenience, quality interior features many construction options, and several neighborhood amenities.  Townhomes starting at $149k.  www.LibertySquare.biz.
     
  • Founders Way: One-level upscale condominiums with amenities such as a swimming pool, fitness center and jogging trail.  Construction has begun!  Condos starting at $149k.  www.FoundersWay.com.
If you have questions about any of these communities, please let me know (540-578-0102, scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com), as I represent Scripture Communities and can either answer your question, or identify someone who can.

ALSO --- STOP THE PRESS!
Don't forget about the Scripture Community Move Up Program, where Scripture Communities will potentially buy your house if you love one of their new communities and want to move up into a new home. 


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