scott@cbfunkhouser.com   540-578-0102 scott@cbfunkhouser.com540-578-0102Click Here for Help! Scott Rogers     Serving The Central Shenandoah Valley
Scott RogersScott Rogers

Welcome! This blog tracks the real estate market in the Central Shenandoah Valley, featuring market data and analysis, an exploration of common buying and selling questions, and candid commentary on all things real estate.

Known as "Coffee with Scott", this blog is almost always authored while drinking coffee, and I offer an open ended invitation to my readers to free coffee. If you are interested in discussing any of the topics on this blog, or the details of your specific real estate situation, call or e-mail me --- I'll treat you to a cup of coffee at your favorite coffeeshop!

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Here's a bright, spacious, updated home in Massanutten Resort -- for sale priced at only $179,000!

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We're halfway through 2008 -- how do this year's home sales compare to previous years?
We've seen this same scenario for awhile now in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County --- the number of home sales is declining, but median home sales prices are climbing.  Click on the image below to view the report as a PDF.

2008 - Home Sales in the first half of the year

If you are looking for more details on a property --- don't hesitate to ask --- it's quite simple to send you the detailed MLS datasheet
These days, most real estate web sites allow you to view properties listed by any agent or company in the area.  My web site works this way --- when you are searching for properties, you won't just find properties being marketed by Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors.

But what you see on a Realtor's or Brokerage's web site is a subset of the information that is in the MLS (multiple listing service).  Here's an example of what you would see for the property located at 409 Diana Court --- a spacious, like new duplex with 1900+ square feet on the south end of Harrisonburg.

409 Diana Court - on the web

But perhaps you would like more information about a property that you are looking at online.  If so --- just e-mail me (scott@cbfunkhouser.com) or call me (540-578-0102), and I'd be happy to provide you with the fuller report on the property available through the MLS.  Here's what that looks like...

409 Diana Court - via the MLS

The information you find on my web site, or any other public web site, is limited to the fields that our local Realtor association allows us to display on a public web site.  The other details can certainly be helpful, so please e-mail (scott@cbfunkhouser.com) or call (540-578-0102), if you'd like to see the full report.

OH --- and if you're looking for even MORE information, don't forget about the many online resources for researching properties in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.

Looking to buy a Taylor Spring townhome? This foreclosure sale could afford you $62,900 of savings!
2991 Taylor Spring Lane2991 Taylor Spring Lane is a three-level townhome in Taylor Spring subdivision with three bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and a half bathroom.  In addition to the 1400 finished square feet above ground, the home has a 700 square foot unfinished basement.  Oh --- and as is evident from the photo on the right, this is an end unit with a brick facade!

The property was originally purchased in March 2004 for $126,540.  The deed of trust that may be foreclosed upon is dated August 30, 2004 and is in the amount of $135,000.  Thus --- even if the principal balance had not been reduced at all by regular monthly payments --- a $62,900 opportunity may exist.  This equity gap is based on the current assessed value of $197,900 and the original principal balance of $135,000.

If you're interested, the trustee sale will take place on July 15, 2008 at 4:30 p.m. at the Rockingham County Circuit Court. 

A few other articles that might be helpful for understanding the foreclosure process include:
And if you'd like to see other comparable Taylor Spring properties currently on the market, click here.

Taylor Spring townhome foreclosure offers a possibility of $29,300 of equity
2979 Diamond Spring LaneThe townhome located at 2979 Diamond Spring Lane (pictured to the right) may soon be sold at a trustee sale.  The property was originally purchased for $200,345 on July 31, 2006.  The mortgage that may be foreclosed on had an original principal amount of $160,000. 

This townhome (circa 2006) features three bedrooms, two full baths, a half bath, and over 1500 finished square feet.  The current assessed value of the property is $189,300 --- thus, compared to the original principal amount of the deed of trust, an opportunity exists for at least $29,300 of equity.

Click here to view other townhomes currently for sale in Taylor Spring.

The trustee sale is scheduled for July 16, 2008 at 3:30 p.m. at the Rockingham County Circuit Court.  A deposit of $15,000 (cash or certified check) will be required at the time of the sale.

To learn more about foreclosures, you might consider reading these articles:


"Price Reduced" - Are Most Asking Prices Headed Down?
Price Reduced!Driving around town, you might see quite a few "Price Reduced" riders on real estate signs.  Have you ever wondered whether most sellers are holding fast, or reducing their asking price?  Let's take a look....

In Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, there are currently 953 residential properties on the market (single family, townhome, condos) without a contract on them.

In the past 30 days (June 2008), 134 of those properties had a price change (that's 14% of the active inventory).  I'm going to assume most of those were price reductions, although some could have (??) been price increases.  (It isn't possible via our MLS to see en masse whether the prices went up or down).

In the past three months (April, May, June 2008), 293 of these properties had a price change --- that's 31% of the active inventory.

And if we look at all of the listings to see how many have, versus have not EVER had a price change, here's what we find:
    384 listings have had a price change (40%)
    569 listings have NEVER had a price change (60%)


This is rather interesting (in my view), as I suspected that most owners may have reduced their price at some point while it has been on the market.  But in fact, most home sellers (60%) have NEVER reduced their asking price.

Here are some other interesting stats looking at how long properties have been on the market.

If you know what you're going to buy --- buy now!

Know What You'll Buy?  Buy Now!Some would say that as a Realtor, I am a salesman.  In fact, when I am representing a Seller, I am working diligently to sell their house.  But when I am representing a buyer, I view my role a bit differently....

Salesman vs. Consultant
When I am working with buyer clients, looking at homes, I am never trying to convince them to buy a particular home.  I am not trying to sell them on the merits of a particular house.  What I am doing is trying to understand their housing needs and desires and to help them evaluate each home to determine whether it will meet their needs, and fulfill their desires.  I am a real estate consultant, helping them to examine each critical aspect of a home to make a wise buying decision.

And yet sometimes (in retrospect) it would have helped my buyer clients if I were a bit more coercive!
I have now had two clients in the past two weeks who knew what house they were going to buy, but held off (for valid reasons) on making an offer.  Then, in the time that they waited, interest rates went up, the associated monthly payment increased, and they were not comfortable buying anymore.  If they had made an offer sooner, they would have finalized their financing, locked in their rate, and they would have been able to buy the house they had hoped to live in.

Rates aren't likely to go up drastically in the next few days, weeks, or months, but they are increasing --- and an increased rate changes your monthly housing costs. 

Given this interest rate context --- I advise you to act speedily once you know which house you would like to purchase!

Read a bit more about pre-qualification here.


Structured parking at Urban Exchange
As you can see below, or in the complete set of June 2008 Urban Exchange construction photos, the lowest floor of structured parking has been mostly completed, and prep work for the second level is beginning.

This project, 194 condos and apartments and 12,000 SF of retail space in downtown Harrisonburg, is slated for completion in the summer of 2009.  Pricing and floor plans will be available in the near future.

Urban Exchange - June 2008

Click the photo above, or here, to see the latest construction photos.

Understand current market value before making an offer!

Forecasting Future Home Prices...It would seem that many buyers in the market today are hesitating before making an offer because they are unsure of the current and future value of the home they think they want to purchase. 

While it's impossible to predict the future 100% accurately, I can definitely help you to better evaluate your buying decision.  Here are a few ways we could quantitatively analyze a property:

Price-per-square-foot trends

If you are buying a home in a subdivision where other homes have recently sold, we can certainly look at average price-per-square-foot trends to estimate the value of the home, and to see how those values have changed over recent months and years.  This graph shows price-per-square-foot trends for all of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.  We would be doing the same sort of analysis, but with a smaller data set.

Comparative Market Analysis (CMA)

In my opinion, a CMA isn't just for a seller before they list their home for sale.  Comparing a property for sale to other similar properties that have recently sold can shed significant light on the potential value of the property.  The "comparable" sold properties would be as similar as possible based on features such as: age, bedrooms, bathrooms, location, condition, square footage, amenities, etc.

There are other ways we can approach this issue as well, but the main thing to remember is that it is important (in any market, but especially now) to understand the value of the home that you might purchase.  The listing price alone won't provide a full picture of the value of the home.


112-acre Bridgewater farm --- foreclosure sale
A credit line deed of trust with a maximum amount of $1,600,000 is being foreclosed on.  The trustee sale will take place on July 9th at 2:00 p.m. on site (5639 Thomas Spring Road, Bridgewater, VA). 

The site looks pretty interesting --- a river runs through it!

The current assessed value $413,980. 

112 acre Bridgewater farm

A bidder's deposit of up to $25,000 in cash or certified funds may be required.

Trustee:  Doug Stark, 540-512-1800
Source:  Daily News Record, June 23, 2008

Trends in median price per square foot
One problem with tracking median home sales prices in a relatively small market is that median home sales prices can easily be swayed if a large number of small (or large) homes sell in a particular month or quarter.

To try to account for the size of the home, I decided to take a look at how the median price per square foot has changed over the past six years.

Trends in Average Price Per Square Foot

This graph has a few irregularities, but overall seems like it might be a reasonably trustworthy indication of how home values are adjusting over time.

Do bear in mind that while I have removed the size factor, I have not accounted for some other factors such as age. The first quarter of 2004 showed a sizable decrease in median home sales price --- this could be explained by a large number of older homes selling, or by some other factor that would affect the price per square foot of homes that sold.

A Reminder --- any Realtor can show you any house...
All my keys...Many things in real estate aren't exactly self explanatory. 

Over the past month I have had conversations with three first-time home buyers who didn't realize that I could show them any house listed by a Realtor in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County area.

As I stopped to think about it, I realized that many people who have never bought a home may not realize that fact.  So here's how it works...
  • When a homeowner works with a Realtor to market and sell their home, the homeowner and Realtor negotiate and agree upon a "brokerage fee" -- the amount of money that the homeowner will pay the Realtor upon the successful sale of the property.  This is often a percentage of the sales price. 

  • Almost always, the homeowner and Realtor agree that if a different Realtor finds and represents the buyer for the home, that the brokerage fee will be split between the Realtor representing the seller, and the Realtor representing the purchaser.

  • As a result, systems exist (MLS, lockboxes) to allow Realtors representing home buyers to be aware of and have access to all homes on the market.

  • So -- while many contextual clues (for sale sign, brochures, other advertising) might suggest that you MUST call the Realtor, representing the homeowner, in fact, that is not true at all.  You can call any Realtor.

  • To bring it all together --- I can show you any house that you see that is for sale.

  • And, of course, any other Realtor can show you those houses, including my listings.
Clear now?  Any questions?

Another look at median home sales price trends
I recently posted a six year trend graph of median home prices, measured each quarter, and concluded that median home sales price analysis is not wildly significant.

However, several people mentioned to me that they would be interested to see how the trend lines changed if I broke out single family homes, as compared to townhomes/duplexes/condos. Here's what we get...

Median Home Sales Prices - Single Family vs Townhome

As you can see, the trend lines aren't wildly different than the trend line that included both data sets together.

Also, both trend lines seem to indicate an increase in median sales price. This could either mean that:
  • Home values are declining in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, or

  • Less expensive homes are selling more often these days than more expensive homes.

Where have all the buyers gone?
Each month I post a graphical representation of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County home sales within the context of the prior five years. (2003-2008)

My monthly home sales report includes the data behind this graph, which (in the most recent month) showed a 23% decline in home sales this year as compared to the prior year (Jan-May 2008 versus Jan-May 2007). But, as a friend of mine pointed out, this doesn't show how far the rate of home sales has fallen compared to when our market was at its fastest pace.

Decline In Home Sales - 2005 vs 2008

The graph above illustrates the 38% decline that we have seen in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County between the peak of buyer activity (2005) and the current year (2008). Please do remember, this is a decline in market activity (properties being sold/purchased), not a decline in home values.

So where did all of those home buyers go? Why did 364 buyers close on properties during January - May 2008 as opposed to 591 buyers during January - May 2005? I have some ideas...
  • There aren't as many investors buying anymore. There were significantly more investor buyers in our market in 2005 as compared to this year. Low sales prices, low interest rates, high appreciation, and high loan-to-value opportunities, and high return on investments all contributed to many, many investor buyers closing on properties during our most active years (2004-2006).

  • Increases in home values have priced many buyers out of the market. Back in 2005, when home values were significantly lower than they are today, many more buyers were qualified to purchase (as opposed to renting). Income levels have risen at a slower pace than housing costs over the past three years.

  • Buyers have to plan to keep their home longer now. Admittedly, this is just a return to the conventional wisdom of the past --- don't buy unless you plan to stay in your home for 3+ (or 5+) years. However, during 2004, 2005, and 2006 it worked out fine for many buyers who bought, and needed to sell only a year later --- they walked away with impressive gains! That phenomenon, created by high appreciation rates, brought many people into the market to buy when otherwise they would have rented. Today, if someone isn't sure whether they'll be in the Harrisonburg area for more than a year or two, they often choose to rent, as they won't necessarily be able to buy, sell, and make money in a 1-2 year time frame.

  • Loans aren't as easy to obtain any more. For several years, if you had a pulse, you could obtain a mortgage. Lenders didn't care whether you could verify your income or your assets --- a buyers word was good enough, and loans were being written for just about anyone who wanted to buy a home. Loan requirements have now become much more strict, which reduces the number of buyers in the market.
Given these four factors, I don't think we should be too surprised that fewer buyers are buying in 2008, as compared to 2005. I suspect that we will see more people buying in 2009 and 2010, but it may be a few years before it returns to the pace we saw during 2004, 2005 and 2006.

The heated debate of residential fire sprinklers!
Fighting A FireYesterday, I wrote an article that talked about the costs and challenges of residential fire sprinklers, given that they may soon be required on all new single family homes and townhomes. Some of the data that I provided was provided by the National Association of Home Builders, who are not in favor of residential code requiring the installation of fire sprinklers.

Today, I received from feedback from two individuals who are advocating for mandatory residential fire sprinklers:
These two residential fire sprinkler advocates offer some good perspectives on the great sprinkler debate, such as:
  • Fire sprinklers go to work immediately to reduce danger, as opposed to a smoke detector which relies upon human factors.

  • Many people assume a sprinkler system would douse an entire home with water, when in fact only the sprinkler(s) in areas affected by fire would be activated in the event of a fire.

  • Most structure fires in the U.S. take place in residential properties, yet residential properties don't require sprinkler systems.
Yet with all of the information that both Ryans provided (strange that they share a name), I have not yet received from either of them some feedback on whether the issues that I raised have merit.  Specifically....
  • Is it true that installing a residential fire sprinkler would require different water (more expensive) water lines and water meters?

  • Is it true that it is difficult (or impossible) to use a water softener in tandem with a residential fire sprinkler system without having to add a second incoming water line and water meter?
Hopefully we'll get some more feedback from the Ryans --- but I would also be interested in my other blog readers' feedback on residential fire sprinklers:
  • Cost aside, would you want them in your home?

  • If they were optional in a new home, would you be willing to pay to have them included?

Buy Fresh, Buy Local!
Buy Fresh, Buy Local

For those interested in buying fresh, locally grown or produced food, make sure to check out the new Buy Fresh Buy Local Food Directory, posted by Thanh over over at hburgnews.com.

You might also be interested in checking out the Shenandoah Valley's Buy Fresh Buy Local website  at http://www.buylocalshenvalley.org.

The Psychology of Home Buying in Today's Market
Hmmm.....should I buy??For those of you who regularly read articles on my blog, it is likely apparent that I thoroughly enjoy data, number crunching, analysis, etc. But sometimes my counseling background (Masters of Education in Counseling Psychology, CSPA) slips in, and I give the data some rest to look beyond the numbers.

These three perspectives on our current market were developed through conversations with several clients over the past few weeks, and I believe they offer valuable insight into our current market in addition to what the numbers would suggest.

Place and Space

Most people realize that in our current market, there are some great opportunities to get a good deal on a home purchase. The supply of homes for sale is higher than it has been for several years, and the amount of buyers in the market is lower than it has been for several years. Given this dynamic, some sellers, Realtors, market observers are curious as to why more buyers aren't finding a great deal and moving forward.

I had a conversation recently with someone who isn't even in the market to buy right now --- but who shared a valuable perspective with me. They suggested that for most people, buying a home isn't really about "getting a great deal" or "taking advantage of the current market dynamics" --- it's about buying a place that feels like a home and space that serves one's needs.

That is a keen observation --- because there are plenty of deals to be had, and buyers can definitely take advantage of current market dynamics. But perhaps buyers aren't snapping up homes because they are waiting to find the perfect place and space to call home.


The Psychology of Fear

Just listen to the news, or your neighbor, and you'll soon know that the economy is terrible right now. High gas prices --- a declining national housing market --- higher food costs --- soaring health insurance costs, and on and on. All of these economic conditions can make people (home buyers, especially) fearful for their financial future.

And thus, even though home values in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County haven't seen declines like some areas of the country, many buyers are hesitating to purchase --- and some of them are doing so out of fear for what the economy may look like over the next few months and years.


The Power of Hope

Beyond the effects of feeling fearful about the future, I would also suggest that home buyers need to feel positive and hopeful in order to be excited about buying a home. Sometimes this can be a self-contained hope --- hope for how a home will make life better for their family. But sometimes those outside influences (such as our current economic situation) can sneak in and steal the hope away.


To truly understand our current market, it is essential to not only consider the data but also current market psychology --- as either can have the upper hand in shaping our real estate market now and into the future.

Have real estate questions? Get answers!
Chat on my blog...You can certainly e-mail me (scott@cbfunkhouser.com), or call me (540-578-0102), but now you can also chat with me from my blog. Just look for my chat "widget" in the right column on my blog (similar to the image in this post).

I'm not always online, but when I am, I'd be happy to talk to you about the Harrisonburg real estate market, the buying or selling process, or anything that would be helpful to you.

I have already had a few great conversations with people over the past few weeks since I have added this functionality. One such person enjoyed that they could ask me a question rather anonymously. You can type your name in the bottom of the chat box (where it says "Your nickname") if you'd like, but you certainly don't have to.

Sometimes we'll agree that it makes more sense to continue the conversation by phone or e-mail, but I hope you will feel welcome to use this chat functionality to get a quick answer to a question or to strike up a conversation about the market.

Fire Safety vs. Building Cost
Fire SprinklerIn its September meeting, the International Code Council will be considering a change to the International Residential Code which would mandate the installation of sprinklers in all new single family homes and townhouses.

At first you might think "why not mandate sprinklers, if they'd make our families and our homes safer!?"

But before we encourage our local building inspectors to vote for this change to the IRC, let's take a look at some of the technical and cost issues involved:
  1. Water Supply
    The typical domestic water supply does not provide adequate water flow rate for a residential fire sprinkler system. A larger incoming water line will have to be installed, and the water meter and pressure regulator will likely need to be modified as well.

  2. Water Softeners
    Typical residential water softeners are designed for low flow rates, and the drop in water pressure as it passes through the water softener would cause most fire sprinkler systems not to function.

  3. Malfunctioning Systems
    The fire sprinkler piping is always full of water in a "wet" system, which if the pipes freeze can cause significant damage. The alternatives to wet systems (multi-function, dry) have limitations relative to cost, approval by the IRC, and dependency on electricity.

  4. Increased Cost To Home Buyers
    In 2007, a survey was conducted of residential builders to gauge the cost of adding a residential sprinkler system. The media cost of a fire sprinkler system with a public water source was between $3500 and $5000. On a private water source, the media cost was between $8000 and $9000.
With all of these issues, could homeowners really want sprinklers in their home?
  • According to a national poll conducted by sprinkler advocates, 63 percent of those surveyed indicated that they were aware that residential sprinkler systems are available, but the number of homes built annually that are equipped with sprinklers continue to be less than 2 percent, many of which are required by local ordinance and not as an option elected by the home buyer.

  • When asked in a 2007 survey of 800 likely voters by Public Opinion Strategies if fire sprinklers should be required in new homes, an overwhelming 89 percent of consumers said that smoke detectors already do an adequate job of protecting them in their homes and 28 percent would not want sprinklers at all, even if they were provided free of charge. Survey results show that only 15 percent of consumers in the sample were willing to pay $4,800 or more for a residential fire sprinkler system.
Mandating sprinkler systems in single family homes / townhomes seems like a bad idea to me.

What do you think?


Sellers, here's an old trick --- that never grows old!
Can you smell them? Yum!I was showing a house last evening and as I pulled up, the homeowner was hurrying out of the house to let us view his home.  His departure immediately upon our arrival didn't seem too out of the ordinary, until we walked into the house... and smelled... freshly baked chocolate chip cookies!

On the counter we found some fresh-out-of-the-oven cookies and several ice cold bottles of water, along with a note inviting us to enjoy the treats as we looked through the sellers' home.  We really did partake of the cookies, and they were great! 

Many people would suggest that viewing a home is an experience taken in by all of the senses.  Thus, if the smells (and tastes) that a prospective buyer encounters while they are viewing a home are pleasing, they will be more likely to have a pleasing assessment of the home.  In contrast to our delight upon smelling still-warm chocolate chip cookies, think about how you would experience a home that has a heavy smoke or pet odor!

So --- did the cookies and bottled water convince these prospective buyers to buy this particular house?  This remains to be seen, but we do have a hunch that the cookies may have been laced with a strong aphrodisiac, as we all fell in love with the house!

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